Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Partly Sunny

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164


Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be light and mostly westerly in direction at 5 mph to 15 mph or less. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today.
Seas will be  moderate to calm at 1 to 3 ft. or less.  The air temperatures will range from the high 70sºF to the mid to high 80s ºF or 26°C to 27ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 80°F to 82°F or 26ºC to 27ºC.




The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Gulf of Mexico - A NW to SE orientated surface trough will develop intermittently across the SW Gulf waters through early Thu. A NE to SW oriented ridge will extend across the NW Gulf waters through late Wed night...then weaken and retract E as a cold front moves off the Texas coast on Thu afternoon. The cold front will race E reaching from Tampa Bay, FL to the NW Yucatan Peninsula on Fri night and pass through the Florida Straits early Sat night.
2. Caribbean Sea - A broad area of low pressure will persist across the SW Caribbean through Fri. Large N swells across the tropical waters NE of the Leeward Islands will continue S through the NE Caribbean passages late tonight through Wed. These swells will reach the N coast of S America on Tue night...then gradually subside late in the week.
3. ...Special Features...
3a. Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 44.8N 41.0W at 0300 UTC or about 520 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland, accelerating toward the NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of 40N between 35W and 45W. Nicole should transition to an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday. Large swells associated with Nicole will affect the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores islands for the next few days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a day or two.
3b. A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the W Atlantic, with a relatively broad base reaching the central Bahamas. The troughing aloft is supporting a 1006 mb low near 23N72W and a large area of heavy showers and tstms from 19N to 25N between 64W and 70W. The low is expected to slowly intensify as upper-level winds become more conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during the next day or two as the low moves northward or north-northwestward. There is a medium chance on this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone during the next two days.
4. ...Tropical Waves...
4a. Tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 07N to 15N with axis near 27W, expected to move W at 5-10 kt over the next 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show pockets of dry air in the wave environment. Shallow moisture and divergent wind flow aloft support scattered showers from 07N to 16N E of 30W, including the Cape Verde Islands.
Fig 3 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer
The Tides: Moon and Sun
low tide 4:03 am LT                          Sunrise – 5:40 am LT>100° East
high tide 10:47 pm LT                       Sunset – 5:25 pm LT < 260° NW
low tide  4:39 pm LT                         Moon Rise – 8:02 pm LT<73° East
high tide 10:11 pm LT                       Moon Set – 8:09 am LT>286º West
                                                                                                                                        

    
Fig 4 - Moon

Day Light Hours: 11 hours, 44 minutes (-49s)

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