Fish

Monday, September 29, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Light Winds and Moderate Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday,  September 29, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light and mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 3 feet. This morning's satellite images show a tropical wave is about 300 miles east of us. It will pass over us tonight and Tuesday. Expect increasing cloudiness with a chance of rain with this system.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer




The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a little better organized over the past several hours, upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development while the low moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system will produce locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave will move through the W Caribbean through Monday night before moving W of the area. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.

 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 5:57 am LT                      Moon Rise – 10:09 am LT
high tide 1:56 pm LT                     Moon Set –9:53 pm LT
low tide 7:23 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
high tide 12:15 am LT                   Sunset – 5:39 pm LT


Sunday, September 28, 2014

Again Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Sunday,  September 28, 2014Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be moderate and mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. This morning's satellite images show a tropical wave is about 600 miles east of us. It will pass over us tonight and Monday. Expect increasing cloudiness with a chance of rain with this system.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
2. A tropical wave near 75W will move across the WCaribbean tonight through Monday night. fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere...except winds increasing to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Thursday night.
3. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density and is the smallest it has been so far this tropical storm season.  It has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

low tide 4:42 am LT                      Moon Rise – 9:15 am LT
high tide 12:24 am LT                   Moon Set –9:04 pm LT
low tide 6:00 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
high tide 10:44 pm LT                   Sunset – 5:39 pm LT


Saturday, September 27, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Light Winds and Moderate Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Saturday,  September 27, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light and mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph or less this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.. Seas will be calm to moderate at 1 to 4 feet. This morning's satellite images show the center of the tropical wave is well to the west of us.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.





















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
2. A tropical wave near 69W will traverse the central Caribbean through Saturday night and the W Caribbean Sunday and Monday. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail basin wide through Monday...increasing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean Monday night through Wednesday night.
3. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has changed in area and in density. See Figs. 17 and 18 above. The Saharan Air Layer has been decreasing in size and density for the past few days. See Fig 19 above. There is a hypothesis that the SAL which is a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles,
inhibits the formation of hurricanes and as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation increases.

Tropical Atlantic Uneventful / Tropical Storm Rachel No Threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Atlantic Basin Hostile to Tropical Cyclone Formation

The weak disturbance that was INVEST 96L is no longer of any significance as it became overwhelmed by both drier and stable air along with increased wind shear. What’s left of the disturbance has turned N/NE.

Although there are 3 other tropical Waves in the Atlantic basin – none pose any threat of development – and no cyclone formations are expected or forecast by the more reliable models for the next 7 days.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 3:50 am LT                      Moon Rise – 8:22 am LT
high tide 10:53 am LT                   Moon Set –8:18 pm LT
low tide 4:47 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
high tide 9:43 pm LT                     Sunset – 5:40 pm LT