Fish

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday, September 18, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction today at 5 mph to 15 mph. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 3 feet. Expect these wind and sea conditions to prevail through this weekend. There is a slight chance of scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.
    2. A tropical wave has been designated Invest 95L. It is accompanied by a broad low pressure system, which is located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
    3.A tropical wave moving across the Leeward Islands will move through the E Caribbean today and tonight...then the central Caribbean through Friday night...then will weaken and become harder to track as it continues westward. Another tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic waters Saturday and Saturday night...then into the E Caribbean Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise...moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the area through the period.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook


Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
high tide 5:24 am LT                       Moon Rise – 1:03 am LT
low tide 11:41 am LT                      Moon Set –2:10 pm LT
high tide 5:51 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:36 am LT
low tide 12:10 am LT                     Sunset – 5:47 pm LT


Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Partly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday,  September 17, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction today at 5 mph to 15 mph. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 3 feet. Expect  these wind and sea conditions to prevail through this weekend. There is a slight chance of scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer






The Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Edouard, located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
1. A weak tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today. Development of this system is not expected through Thursday, and any development through the weekend is expected to be slow to occur while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave will move from the tropical N Atlc into the E Caribbean Thu...then through the central Caribbean Fri and Fri night before weakening as it moves into the W Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Otherwise...moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the area through the period.


3. Note that the Saharan Air Layer has increased in size and density for the past two (2) days. See Fig. 19 above.

 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
high tide 4:39 am LT                       Moon Rise – 1:08 am LT
low tide 11:07 am LT                      Moon Set –1:24 pm LT
high tide 5:22 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:36 am LT
low tide 11:44 pm LT                     Sunset – 5:48 pm LT