Fish

Friday, October 24, 2014

Again Partly Sunny with Westerly Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Friday, October 24, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be westerly and variable in direction at 10 mph to 20 mph or higher. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, as the remnants of TD 9 and a cold front move over the NW Caribbean.






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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered over southeastern Yucatan, Belize, and the adjacent northwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. Surface pressures are rising in the area, and redevelopment is unlikely while the system drifts eastward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
    2. A surface low will move NE along the N coast of Cuba today dragging a cold front into the NW Caribbean. The cold front will continue E stalling from E Cuba to NE Honduras late Sat. Another low pressure center will develop along the southern portion of the frontal boundary late Sat night. The low will move W across the Gulf of Honduras on Sun through Tue. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean will pass through the central Caribbean tonight and Sat...and lose identity over the W Caribbean on Sun and Mon. A second tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic waters on Sat night and Sun...and pass through the E Caribbean on Mon and Tue.
    3. 20 mph to 30 mph westerly winds are forecast for the Bay Islands on Saturday.

Invest 94L in Western Caribbean Little Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2014

The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis were predicting development of 94L in their Friday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. is bringing high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots to the Western Caribbean and is injecting dry air, which is discouraging development. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model indicates that these hostile conditions will persist into early next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


Not Available Today

 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  94L
low tide 2:12 am LT                Moon Rise – 6:16 am LT
high tide 9:03 am LT               Moon Set –6:14 pm LT
low tide 2:55 pm LT                Sunrise – 5:42 am LT
high tide 8:02 pm LT               Sunset – 5:22 pm LT


Thursday, October 23, 2014

Again Partly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday, October 23, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be variable in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less. Seas will be calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.





Not Available Today

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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. TD 9 has dissipated. It will continue to move slowly inland today and further weaken.
    2. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
    3. A tropical wave will move across the E Caribbean today...the central Caribbean Fri...and the W Caribbean Sat through Sun. A cold front will sink SE across the Yucatan Channel Sat...become stationary over the NW Caribbean Sun...and dissipate through Mon.
    4. 20 mph to 30 mph westerly winds are forecast for the Bay Islands on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Depression Nine Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2014

Small and weak Tropical Depression Nine dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night, shortly after making landfall near 8 pm EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014 on the western shore of the peninsula. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy and satellite loops show that ex-TD 9 is bringing some heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters, and this activity will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. will inject a large amount of dry air into the Western Caribbean this weekend, discouraging development, and wind shear is expected to be a rather high 15 - 25 knots, which should keep any development slow. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.
     

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

low tide 1:41 am LT                Moon Rise – 5:25 am LT
high tide 8:29 am LT               Moon Set –5:22 pm LT
low tide 2:15 pm LT                Sunrise – 5:41 am LT
high tide 7:30 pm LT               Sunset – 5:22 pm LT