Fish

Monday, October 20, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday, October 20, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be calm to choppy at 1 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.






















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
    2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
    3. Fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean waters through the forecast period. A tropical wave will enter the tropical N Atlantic waters W of 55W on Tue...the E Caribbean Wed...and the central Caribbean Thu and Fri.


 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 12:19 am LT              Moon Rise – 2:57 am LT
high tide 6:52 am LT               Moon Set –3:21 pm LT
low tide 12:35 pm LT              Sunrise – 5:41 am LT
high tide 6:21 pm LT               Sunset – 5:23 pm LT


Sunday, October 19, 2014

Again, Partly Sunny with Light to Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Sunday,  October 19, 2014Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be  easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.  Seas will be calm to choppy at 1 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.


 























Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer





The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gonzalo, located south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
2. A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of the week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
4. Fresh to strong breezes can be expected across the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean waters through the forecast period. A tropical wave will enter the tropical N Atlantic waters W of 55W on Tue...the E Caribbean Wed...and the central Caribbean Thu.
5. A cold front extends from N Florida to the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front will become diffuse from near Tampa Bay to the central Texas coast late tonight. A second cold front will move into the N waters Tue. This front will stall and dissipate from central Florida to S Texas Wed. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the SW Gulf early next week and drift E through Thu.
6. The highly reliable GFS wind model is predicting westerly winds for this area beginning Wed and continuing through the end of the week.


 


 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
high tide 6:18 am LT               Moon Rise – 2:10 am LT
low tide 12:05 am LT              Moon Set –2:52 pm LT
high tide 5:59 pm LT              Sunrise – 5:40 am LT
low tide 12:19 pm LT             Sunset – 5:24 pm LT