Fish

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Again Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday, August 21, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph or less; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate to calm at 1 to 4 feet.The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer




The Tropical Weather Outlook
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure, designated Invest 96L, located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for development early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
    All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it tracks westward toward us.
    This tropical low pressure near 14.5N 55.5W, will move NW today; crossing the Lesser Antilles near 15N this evening...reach near 17N65W around sunrise Friday...reach near the Mona Passage at sunset Friday...then pass N of the Windward Passage at sunset on Saturday. This low has the possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone.
    A tropical wave accompanying the low will continue W across the W Caribbean on Sunday and Monday.
 

Disorganized 96L Bringing Heavy Rains to Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Heavy rain showers are sweeping through the Lesser Antilles Islands as a strong tropical wave (Invest 96L) heads west-northwestwards at about 15 - 20 mph through the islands. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed a pretty unimpressive system, with a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had changed little in intensity or organization since Wednesday. The storm was poorly organized, with a clumpy appearance and just a few small low-level spiral bands. Radar loops from Barbados and Martinique showed only a slight amount of rotation in the radar echoes. An 8:37 pm EDT Wednesday pass from the ASCAT satellite showed top surface winds near 35 mph on the east side of 96L. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 96L has moistened its environment considerably since Wednesday, though some dry pockets persist in the vicinity, particularly to the west. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 28°C, which favors development.


Figure 1. Radar image of 96L from 10:35 am EDT August 21, 2014. Image credit: Barbados Meteorological Services.

Forecast for 96L
Despite 96L's disorganized appearance on satellite imagery, the Thursday afternoon flight of the Hurricane Hunters is underway, but the earliest I would expect 96L to become a tropical depression would be Friday morning. The 0Z Thursday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting potential development into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm will pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday and Friday, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds, which will also affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic Friday through Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 6" with locally higher amounts are expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of 96L.

The circulation center of 96L has jumped considerably to the northwest over the past day, resulting in northward shifts in the expected track of the system from all of the major models. On Saturday, 96L may pass near or over the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. By Sunday, 96L is expected to be near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and both the GFS and UKMET models predict that 96L will be able to develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, though Sunday, then rise on Monday. With dry air expected to be in the region, wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. A trough of low pressure is expected to be over the U.S. East Coast early next week, and the GFS and European models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn 96L north and then northeast, keeping the storm away from the Southeast U.S. coast. However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 70%, respectively.
 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability



 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  96L
low tide 12:41 am LT          Moon Rise – 2:18 am LT
high tide 6:17 am LT           Moon Set –3:28 pm LT
low tide 12:35 pm LT          Sunrise – 5:33 am LT
high tide 6:56 pm LT           Sunset – 6:08 pm LT


Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Again Mostly Sunny and Windy

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, August 20, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 10 mph to 15 mph; increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy to rough at 2 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.



















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this system.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the disturbance located to its west.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
The tropical low pressure, mentioned (1) above, near 10N53W is expected to move NW to near 13N55W tonight...pass through the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday night...pass S of Puerto Rico on Friday night...pass S of Hispaniola on Saturday and reach the N central Caribbean late Sunday...with potential for tropical cyclone formation throughout the period. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it tracks westward toward us.

96L Slowly Organizing on its Way to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2014

A tropical wave (96L) located near 11°N 53°W, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed the wave had a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was steadily increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Decent upper-level outflow channels were present on the storm's west and south sides. The storm was poorly organized, though, with a clumpy appearance and just a few small low-level spiral bands. An 8:57 pm EDT Tuesday pass from the ASCAT satellite showed top surface winds near 35 mph in a clump of thunderstorms a few hundred miles to the east of center of 96L. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that while the wave has plenty of dry air to its north to contend with, it has managed to moisten its environment considerably since Monday. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 28°C, which favors development. The outermost thunderstorms of 96L had appeared on Barbados radar by Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The wave should continue to organize over the next two days, and pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night and Friday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds--particularly to the southern islands in the chain. The wave will then track west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 0Z Wednesday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting development into a tropical depression south of Puerto Rico. All three models show that on Saturday, 96L will pass over or just south of the island of Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. With dry air expected to be in the Caribbean, the moderate levels of wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while in the Caribbean--a disorganized system that struggles against dry air. The most likely day for development into a tropical depression is Friday, when the storm will be south of Puerto Rico.

A second disturbance near 14°N, 46°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 10%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  96L
low tide 12:12 am LT              Moon Rise – 1:29 am LT
high tide 5:39 am LT               Moon Set –2:41 pm LT
low tide 12:07 pm LT              Sunrise – 5:33 am LT
high tide 6:29 pm LT               Sunset – 6:09 pm LT