Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Sunny Skies with Moderately Strong Winds and Choppy Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday, August 19, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph; increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy to rough at 2 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
Expect decreasing cloudiness and rain as the tropical wave passes to the W of us today.

Coral Spawning
Divers should look for signs of coral spawning on night dives for the next 1 to 2 days.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer




The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is limited. Although development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the west-northwest at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A tropical wave over the Yucatan Channel and W Caribbean will continue W of the area early today. A second tropical wave will pass W through the tropical Atlantic waters tonight and Wednesday...pass through the E Caribbean on Thursday...and reach the central Caribbean on Friday and Saturday. A third tropical wave will reach the tropical Atlantic waters on Friday and pass through the lesser Antilles on Saturday.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

high tide 4:53 am LT               Moon Rise – 1:34 am LT
low tide 11:32 am LT              Moon Set –1:51 pm LT
high tide 5:59 pm LT               Sunrise – 5:33 am LT
low tide 12:12 pm LT              Sunset – 6:10 pm LT


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