The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Tuesday,
August 26, 2017
Today,
skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be very light and variable in
direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less. Seas
will be calm at 1 to 3 feet or less. There is a very slight chance of
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during
the early morning, late night hours. Expect these weather conditions
through tomorrow.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. It will feel much warmer then
this with little or no wind. Expect these weather conditions to
prevail through midday Wednesday
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
The
National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded
Hurricane Cristobal, located a couple of hundred miles north of the
southeastern Bahamas.
1.
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
*Formation
chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
2.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa late
this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern Atlantic.
*Formation
chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A
tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic zone along 57W will reach
the eastern Caribbean by Wednesday...the central Caribbean
Thursday...and pass through the Western Caribbean Thursday night
through Saturday. A more vigorous tropical wave near 45W will reach
the tropical N Atlantic by Wednesday night...and slowly move through
the eastern Caribbean Friday through Saturday night.
Cristobal a Hurricane; Little Change to 97L
Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Tropical Storm Cristobal's intense thunderstorms stretching from the Southeast Bahamas to Bermuda at 2 pm EDT on August 25, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Little change to 97L headed towards the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) was near 13°N, 47°W on Tuesday morning, about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has changed little since Monday, and has a modest amount of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 97L is located in a dry environment, which is keeping development slow. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C, which is warm enough to allow some slow development. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday and be near Puerto Rico on Saturday, according to the Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict 97L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. These odds are 10% lower than their previous advisory, and NHC has stopped running their suite of models on 97L.
New tropical wave coming off coast of Africa this weekend
A large and powerful tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Friday evening, and the GFS model has been very aggressive in recent runs about developing this wave into a tropical storm within a day of its emergence. The other reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, have not been developing this wave right away. Residents of the Cape Verde Islands should anticipate the possibility of heavy rain and strong winds on Saturday as the wave moves west at 10 - 15 mph across the islands. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.
The Gulf of Mexico is worth watching
In the Gulf of Mexico, heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished since Monday along a weak cold front stretching from South Florida to the Louisiana coastal waters. Some models show a weak area of low pressure developing along this front and moving westwards over Texas by Friday, and we should keep an eye on this region for development.
Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific taken at approximately 18:15 UTC (2:15 pm EDT) on August 25, 2014. At the time, Marie was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 97L
ow
tide 2:45 am LT Moon Rise – 6:20 am LT
high
tide 9:01 am LT Moon Set –6:57 pm LT
low
tide 2:56 pm LT Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
high
tide 8:46 pm LT Sunset – 6:05 pm LT
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