Friday, August 15, 2014

Again, Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Friday, August 15, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate at 2 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
Coral Spawning
Divers should look for signs of coral spawning on night dives for the next 7 days.





























Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer





The Tropical Weather Outlook
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered just off the west coast of Africa. This low is accompanied by an area of disturbed weather, and is forecast to move west- northwestward toward an environment unfavorable for significant development.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave will move through the tropical Atlantic waters tonight into Saturday...enter the E Caribbean late Saturday...reach the central Caribbean on Sunday night and Monday...and pass through the Western Caribbean during Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Dry Air Dominates the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2014

There are two tropical waves in the Eastern Atlantic worth mentioning today--one right at the coast of Africa, and another about 700 miles to its west, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both of these waves are headed west-northwest towards much drier air, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days--though the wave farther from the coast of Africa has the UKMET model and a few members of the GFS and European model ensembles showing some weak development. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance near the coast of Africa 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. Dry air dominates the tropical Atlantic, and it will be difficult for a tropical storm to form in the coming week.


 
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook


Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

high tide 12:02 am LT          Moon Rise – 10:22 pm LT
low tide 7:00 am LT             Moon Set –10:16 am LT
high tide 1:55 pm LT            Sunrise – 5:32 am LT
low tide 7:45 pm LT             Sunset – 6:12 pm LT
 


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