Monday, August 11, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday, August 11, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours. Expect cloudiness and scattered showers most of this week with the passage of several tropical waves.
Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate at 2 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


The Tropical Weather Outlook
Shower activity has decreased in association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still possible in a few days after it encounters a more conducive environment while it moves westward at about 15 mph. This system has been  designated Invest 94L. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it tracks westward toward us.
A tropical wave along 85W will reach the Yucatan Peninsula late today. A second tropical wave along 68W will pass through the central Caribbean Monday and Tuesday and move through the Western Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday entering the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the wake of these tropical waves. A third tropical wave will approach the tropical N Atlantic waters Friday night.

 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  94L
low tide 2:52 am LT            Moon Rise – 7:07 pm LT
high tide 8:55 am LT           Moon Set –6:17 am LT
low tide 3:08 pm LT            Sunrise – 5:31 am LT
high tide 9:19 pm LT           Sunset – 6:14 pm LT


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