Saturday, August 30, 2014

A Chance of Rain as a Tropical Wave Passes

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Saturday, August 30, 2017
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. There is a chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, as a tropical wave passes over us today.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit significant development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
    A tropical wave entering the NW Caribbean will move inland tonight. A weaker tropical wave near 55W in the tropical N Atlantic waters will reach the eastern Caribbean tonight and the central Caribbean by Monday. A third tropical wave in the tropical Atlantic will pass 55W Monday and enter the eastern Caribbean by Tuesday and into the central Caribbean by Wednesday.

Invest 99L in Western Caribbean a Threat to Develop on Monday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2014

A tropical wave in the Western Caribbean was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Friday night, and is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that 99L had a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, but these thunderstorms were poorly organized. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was moderate, 10 - 20 knots. Although these conditions are favorable for development, 99L will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The 8 am Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions will be even more favorable for development on Monday when the wave will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Wind shear will remain moderate, the atmosphere will be moister, and SSTs will be warmer: 29.5°C (85°F.) One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the GFS, showed some weak development occurring in the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 40%, respectively. The semi-circular ring of high terrain along the southern edge of the Bay of Campeche is known to aid in generating the counter-clockwise spiraling winds needed to assist in spinning up a new tropical storm, and given the propensity of tropical storms to quickly spin up in the Bay of Campeche, I'd put the 5-day development odds at 50%. If a tropical storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, the most likely track would be to the west-northwest or northwest towards the Mexican coast south of Texas. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Monday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 5:25 am LT            Moon Rise – 9:34 am LT
high tide 1:11 pm LT           Moon Set –9:35 pm LT
low tide 6:24 pm LT            Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
high tide 11:14 pm LT         Sunset – 6:02 pm LT


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