The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Thursday,
August 28, 2017
Today,
skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 5
mph to 10 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this
afternoon and evening. Seas
will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet or less.
Expect increasing cloudiness and scattered rain showers with the passage of a tropical wave later today.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
The
National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda.
- A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over South Texas and northern Mexico today.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
- A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
- A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
- A tropical wave will continue W through the Western Caribbean today through Saturday night. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean by Friday and pass through the Western Caribbean Saturday night through Monday night. A third tropical wave will enter the tropical N Atlantic Saturday...the eastern Caribbean Sunday night and the central Caribbean Monday night. A fourth tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic Monday.
Cristobal Headed Towards Iceland; 98L Moving Inland Over Texas
Hurricane Cristobal continues to churn northeastwards over the Atlantic towards Iceland. Satellite loops show that Cristobal has its most impressive appearance of its lifetime, with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms. Cristobal will merge with a frontal zone on Friday and transition to a powerful extratropical storm that will likely bring tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain to Iceland on Sunday night. The GOES-14 satellite is in rapid-scan mode over Cristobal on Thursday, and you can access an impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of the storm from the NOAA/RAMMB website.
Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal's off the coast of North Carolina at 2 pm EDT on August 27, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Gulf of Mexico's 98L moving inland over Texas
A weak area of low pressure (Invest 98L) was centered near the coast at the Texas/Mexico border on Thursday morning. Satellite loops and images from the Brownsville, Texas radar showed the low was generating a few areas of heavy thunderstorms that were slowly growing more organized. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots and ocean temperature were a very warm 29°C, which favor development, but 98L should move inland over South Texas on Thursday afternoon, before development into a tropical depression can occur. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%.
Caribbean disturbance 97L headed towards Mexico
In the Eastern Caribbean, a tropical wave (designated as 97L by NHC earlier this week) is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads west to west-northwest. Wind shear was a prohibitively high 20 - 40 knots on Thursday, and will remain high through Saturday. On Sunday, when the wave will be in the Western Caribbean, shear will fall, but the wave will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The wave is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday, and development odds will be higher then. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show some weak development in the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively.
New tropical wave coming off coast of Africa this weekend
A large and powerful tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Friday evening, and will move near or over the Cape Verde Islands on Saturday as the storm moves west at 10 - 15 mph. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict the wave will develop over the next five days, but wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow some slow development. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low
tide 3:51 am LT Moon Rise – 7:55 am LT
high
tide 10:20 am LT Moon Set –8:14 pm LT
low
tide 4:14 pm LT Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
high
tide 9:38 pm LT Sunset – 6:04 pm LT
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