The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Saturday, August 16, 2017
Today, skies will be partly cloudy with
intermittent rain and thunderstorms. Winds will be easterly in
direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 20 mph
this afternoon and evening. Seas
will be moderate at 2 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from
the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to
26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to
84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
Coral Spawning
Divers should look for signs of coral spawning on night dives for the
next 5 days.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
Early
morning visible satellite images indicate that the shower activity
associated with an area of low pressure centered between the west
coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands has become disorganized.
Although the potential for tropical cyclone formation has diminished
considerably, the low could still produce a few squalls over the Cape
Verde Islands today as it drifts west-northwestward.
* Formation
chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*
Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.
This system has now been designated Invest 95L
A
tropical wave will pass through the E Caribbean today and
tonight...pass through the central Caribbean Sunday and Monday...and
pass through the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday. A second
tropical wave will enter tropical N Atlantic waters Tuesday and the E
Caribbean on Wednesday.
Little Development Threat in Atlantic;
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2014
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that moved off the coast of Africa on Friday
was between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa on Saturday morning, but is
headed west-northwest into drier air. Satellite loops show the wave has
a closed surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking due
to high wind shear of 25 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and
the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 95L is entering a dry airmass.
Sea Surface Temperatures beneath 95L were a marginal 26°C on Saturday,
but were predicted to fall to 25.5°C by Sunday, limiting the potential for
development. The wave is drifting slowly west-northwest, and will affect the
weather over the Cape Verde Islands Saturday and Sunday. None of the reliable
computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, European,
and UKMET) develop 95L. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook,
NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20%. A second tropical wave
midway between the Cape Verdes Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands is
headed west at about 15 mph. This wave has a decent amount of spin, but has
very limited heavy thunderstorms due to dry air. Some of the members of the
GFS and European ensemble model predict that this wave could develop, but
the atmosphere is likely far too dry for this to occur.
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| MODIS true-color image of 95L between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands at approximately 8:00 am EDT August 16, 2014. Image credit: NASA. |
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Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 95L
high tide 1:24 am LT
Moon Rise – 11:09 pm LT
low tide 8:07 am LT Moon Set –11:12 am LT
high tide 3:23 pm LT
Sunrise – 5:32 am LT
low tide 9:35 pm LT
Sunset – 6:11 pm LT
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