Today, a tropical wave, located west of the Lesser Antilles Islands was designated 95L. This wave has the potential to develop into a dangerous tropical storm or hurricane by this Friday, Sept.,24, 2010. At 4:30pm EDT, the NHC was giving this system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone (See Fig 1).
This wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. At this speed and direction is should be near Cape Gracias Adios, Honduras and/or Nicaragua by Friday and on us by no later than Saturday, assuming forward speed remains constant.
At 2:00pm, this afternoon 95L was centered about 1300 miles ESE of Roatan.
Figs 2, 3, and 4 all show projected storm tracks. Figs 2 and 3 also show the predicted storm intensity. At this time there is a large variation between the computer models with respect to track and intensity. However, those differences tend to narrow as the storm develops and intensifies.
95L is basically following the same tracks that Alex and Karl did, except it is getting better organized earlier than either of those storms did. Consequently it will have more time to intensify. IMO it looks like Alex and Karl were practice runs for 95L.
Also remember that ocean temperatures are at historic all time highs for this area. The heat in the ocean is the energy which hurricanes need to develop and intensify.
It is extremely important, that everyone remember we have three (3) days or less to get every thing battened down in preparation for this storm.
All interests in the Bay Islands and the North Coast of Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of 95L.
I will update this post by no later than 8:00 am MDT, Wed., Sept. 21, 2010.
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Fig 1 - Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook_Tues 100921_2pm EDT http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ |
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| Fig 2 - NHC Projected Computer Model run Tues 100921_1200pm LT |
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| Fig 3 - NHC Projected Tracks for HN_Tues_100921_1200pm LT |
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| Fig 4 - More projected tracks for 95L http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201095_model.html |
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