Partly Cloudy

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast

This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan

CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

Thursday, September 15, 2016
Skies will be partly cloudy. Winds will be moderate and easterly in direction at 10 mph to 25 mph or less. Seas will be  moderate to calm at 2 to 4 ft. or higher. The air temperatures will range from the high 70sºF to the mid to high 80s ºF or 26°C to 27ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 80°F to 82°F or 26ºC to 27ºC.

Fig 1 - Today's Wind and Weather Forecast

Fig 2 - 3 Day Cloud Cover-Rain Forecast

The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Gulf of Mexico - A weak pressure pattern will remain in place over the area through the period. A weak surface trough across the central and NW Gulf will drift westward reaching the coast of Texas tonight or early on Fri. Otherwise...gentle to moderate winds are expected through Mon night.
2. Caribbean Sea - Weak high pressure over the W Atlantic will maintain light to moderate winds and seas across area through the period. NE to E swell from TS Ian well NE of the area continue to impact the northern tropical N Atlantic waters through early Fri.
3....Special Features...
3a. The center of TD Julia at 15/0900 UTC is near 32.0N 79.6W, or about 51 nm to the SSE of Charleston in South Carolina. Julia is moving eastward, or 90 degrees, 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm to 240 nm of the center in the E semicircle. isolated moderate elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
3b.The center of TS Ian at 15/0900 UTC is near 35.5N 52.4W. Ian is moving north-northeastward, or 25 degrees, 17 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm to 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle. isolated moderate elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the S semicircle. A surface trough is 320 nm to the south of Ian, along 30N51W 20N55W 12N60W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm on either side of the line 25N52W 18N55W 14N59W.
3c. The center of TD Twelve at 15/0900 UTC is near 17.6N 29.3W. Twelve is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm of the center in the E semicircle. isolated moderate elsewhere within 400 nm of the center. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it tracks westward toward us. Currently this system does not pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor this system as it moves west towards us.
4...Tropical Waves...
4a.An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20N42W 16N45W 10N46W, moving westward 15 knot. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W.

5. Tropical Depression 12 continues west with little change Tropical Depression Twelve brought heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday, and is now pulling away from the islands as it heads west at 16 mph. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed that TD 12 was well-organized, with a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was completed exposed to view due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, with most of the storm’s heavy thunderstorms far from the center. TD 12 is embedded in a moist atmosphere and has warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81°F) under it, and may be able to develop into Tropical Storm Karl this weekend, when the shear is expected to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. However, the atmosphere surrounding TD 12 will get drier this weekend, which should interfere with development—or possibly dissipate the storm by five days from now, as predicted by the operational GFS model and 17 of its 20 ensemble member forecasts. While most of the 50 members of the European model ensemble show TD 12 eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, 6 out of 50 of the forecasts show the storm hitting the U.S. East Coast 10+ days from now, so it is too early to assume that TD 12 will be a “fish” storm.
6. Another African tropical wave may develop next week The 0Z Thursday runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—agreed that a new tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. This storm is expected to take a track more to the west-northwest than TD 12, and is less likely to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 50%, respectively.

Fig 3 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer

The Tides: Moon and Sun

low tide 1:16 am LT                                  Sunrise – 5:36 am LT>87° East
high tide 7:14 am LT                                 Sunset – 5:48 pm LT < 273° NW
low tide  1:27 pm LT                                 Moon Rise – 5:09 pm LT<97° East
high tide 7:32 pm LT                                 Moon Set – 4:22 am LT>261º West
  

Fig 4 - Moon

Day Light Hours:  12 hours, 9 minutes, (-52 sec)