Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be light and variable in direction this morning at 5 mph or less; increasing to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be calm to moderate at 1 to 3 feet. Expect increasing cloudiness, as a tropical wave continues to pass over us today and tomorrow. Early morning satellite images show a large area of disturbed weather 360 miles to the east of us. Its N-S axis is along 80W longitude between 12N to 19N latitudes. It is moving slowly W towards us. There is a slight chance of scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. Invest 91L is a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low has changed little in organization during the past few hours. While tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated today, environmental conditions could become somewhat more favorable for development by later in the week while the low moves toward the west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
    *Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    *Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
    Currently this system does not pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor it, as it moves west towards us.
2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be very slow to occur while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean will shift W of the area this morning. A second tropical wave along 50W will pass 55W late Wednesday...move across the E Caribbean Thursday and Friday...and the central Caribbean Saturday and Sunday.




Two Minor Atlantic Threat Areas; TD 15-E a Serious Rainfall Threat for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on September 10, 2014

A tropical wave (91L) located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 28°C (83°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate (5 - 15 knots) and the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) would remain moist this week, favoring development. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20% and 70%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or U.S. East Coast. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a threat to Bermuda or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 91L 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands at 8 am EDT September 10, 2014.

Bahamas disturbance very disorganized
A weak area of low pressure over the Bahamas is bringing a few heavy rain showers to the islands, but this this activity is very disorganized. Although wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F), the presence of dry air and cold air aloft associated with an upper level low will allow only very slow development of the disturbance as it drifts westwards at 5 - 10 mph. The disturbance should move over Florida on Friday and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, bringing rains of 1 - 3" to much of Florida. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop the disturbance. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  Invest 91L
low tide 3:19 am LT             Moon Rise – 7:22 pm LT
high tide 9:44 am LT            Moon Set –7:01 am LT
low tide 3:40 pm LT             Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 9:29 pm LT            Sunset – 5:54 pm LT


Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)