Monday, September 1, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Moderate to Strong Easterly Wind

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday, September 01, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 10 mph to 15 mph or higher this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph from the east this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy to rough at 2 to 4 feet or higher. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Fresh to strong SE flow and seas to around 10 ft will persist across the NW Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave that recently exited the Caribbean. A rather weak tropical wave over in the eastern Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean through late Tuesday...and across the western Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean tonight...move across the central Caribbean through late Wednesday and the western Caribbean through Friday. A fourth tropical wave will move through the eastern Caribbean Thursday and Friday.

Invest 99L Organizing Over Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

The center of a broad area of low pressure associated with tropical wave 99L is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and the disturbance is growing more organized as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph. Heavy rains are falling over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Bay of Campeche coast, and radar loops out of Sabancuy, Mexico show a pronounced rotation to the echoes. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity was increasing in intensity and organization, with a number of low-level spiral bands beginning to form. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30°C (86°F), the atmosphere was moist, and wind shear was moderate, 15 - 20 knots. These conditions are favorable for development. The 8 am Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions will remain favorable for development over Bay of Campeche through Thursday, with moderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs of 30°C (86°F.) None of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation showed 99L developing into Tropical Storm Dolly in their Monday morning runs. However, I expect that 99L will be at least a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day development odds into a tropical cyclone of 60% (a tropical cyclone is a generic term for all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.) The storm should continue to track to the west-northwest or northwest, with landfall occurring on the Mexican coast several hundred miles south of the Texas border on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. This likely will not give the storm time to intensify into a hurricane, though landfall as a strong tropical storm would not be a surprise. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development by Saturday of a tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday. 
 


 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook


Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  99L
high tide 12:40 am LT         Moon Rise – 11:19 am LT
low tide 7:57 am LT            Moon Set –11:06 pm LT
high tide 3:41 pm LT          Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
low tide 9:03 pm LT           Sunset – 6:01 pm LT


Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)