Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Sunny with Moderate to Strong Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, September 03, 2017
Again today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 12 mph to 15 mph or higher this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 30 mph from the east this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy to rough at 2 to 4 feet or higher. Expect increasing cloudiness and scattered rain showers tonight and tomorrow with the passage of a tropical wave.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.












Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer





The Tropical Weather Outlook
Dolly has been downgraded to a tropical depression and is located inland over Mexico.
1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system through the weekend while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A tropical wave will pass through the W Caribbean through tonight. A second tropical wave over the E Caribbean will move W through the central Caribbean today and Thursday reaching the W Caribbean on Friday and Saturday. A third tropical wave near 55W will enter the E Caribbean on Thursday...reaching the central Caribbean on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Dolly Hits Mexico; Tropical Storm Norbert Threatening Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 03, 2014

Tropical Storm Dolly made landfall on Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast just south of Tampico near 11 pm EDT Tuesday night as a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds. While Dolly's winds will not cause major damage, the storm's rainfall has the potential to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides as Dolly pushes inland and dissipates today. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville, Texas radar showed areas of 2 - 4 inches of rain along the coast of Mexico as of Wednesday morning, and isolated rainfall amounts of up to 15" are expected from Dolly. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Dolly still had some very heavy thunderstorms over the warm waters just offshore from Tampico, though the storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds as of 7 am CDT on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Twin tropical storms besiege Mexico: Tropical Storm Dolly nears landfall along Mexico's Bay of Campeche (right) as Tropical Storm Norbert brushes the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico (left) in this GOES-East image taken at 7:45 pm EDT September 2, 2014. At the time, both storms had 45 mph sustained winds. Image credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville, Texas radar as of 9:49 am EDT on September 3, 2014, showed areas of 2 - 4" of rain had fallen along the coast of Mexico.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
high tide 3:22 am LT          Moon Rise – 1:10 pm LT
low tide 10:05 am LT         Moon Set –12:50 pm LT
high tide 5:05 pm LT          Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
low tide 10:48 pm LT         Sunset – 5:59 pm LT


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