The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light and mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph or less this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening.. Seas will be calm to moderate at 1 to 4 feet. This morning's satellite images show the center of the tropical wave is well to the west of us.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
The Tropical Weather Outlook1. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
2. A tropical wave near 69W will traverse the central Caribbean through Saturday night and the W Caribbean Sunday and Monday. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail basin wide through Monday...increasing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean Monday night through Wednesday night.
3. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has changed in area and in density. See Figs. 17 and 18 above. The Saharan Air Layer has been decreasing in size and density for the past few days. See Fig 19 above. There is a hypothesis that the SAL which is a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles,
inhibits the formation of hurricanes and as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation increases.
Tropical Atlantic Uneventful / Tropical Storm Rachel No Threat
Atlantic Basin Hostile to Tropical Cyclone Formation The weak disturbance that was INVEST 96L is no longer of any significance as it became overwhelmed by both drier and stable air along with increased wind shear. What’s left of the disturbance has turned N/NE.
Although there are 3 other tropical Waves in the Atlantic basin – none pose any threat of development – and no cyclone formations are expected or forecast by the more reliable models for the next 7 days.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 3:50 am LT Moon Rise – 8:22 am LT
high tide 10:53 am LT Moon Set –8:18 pm LT
low tide 4:47 pm LT Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
high tide 9:43 pm LT Sunset – 5:40 pm LT
high tide 10:53 am LT Moon Set –8:18 pm LT
low tide 4:47 pm LT Sunrise – 5:37 am LT
high tide 9:43 pm LT Sunset – 5:40 pm LT
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