The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Friday,
September 12, 2014
Today,
skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction this
morning at 12 mph to 18 mph or higher; increasing to 20 to 30 mph
this afternoon and evening. Seas
will be rough at 2 to 4 feet or higher. Expect these wind and sea
conditions to prevail through Monday. There is a slight chance of
scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
 |
|
|
 |
|
Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
 |
The Tropical Weather Outlook
1.The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. 2. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph. After that time, conditions over the central tropical Atlantic are expected to be unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
3. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean Sat reaching the W Caribbean Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist mainly across the S central Caribbean. Tropical cyclone Edouard is expected to pass well to the NE of the Leeward Islands Sunday and Monday...delivering swell to 8 ft to the tropical N Atlantic waters mainly N of 15N.
Currently none of these systems pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor them, as they move westward towards us.
4. It should be mentioned that Saharan Air Layer is the smallest it has been this tropical storm season. See Figs. 17, 18, and 19 above.
Edouard Forms in Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Edouard not a threat to land
Tropical Storm Edouard formed Thursday night in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Edouard's formation date of September 12 came almost two weeks later than the typical August 31 formation date for the Atlantic's fifth named storm of the season. Satellite images show that Edouard is steadily organizing, and the official NHC forecast of Edouard becoming a Category 1 hurricane early next week appears to be on track. Edouard is not a threat to any land areas.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
New African tropical wave 93L emerges
A well-organized tropical wave with plenty of spin (93L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday, and was located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on Friday morning. Satellite images show 93L has only a small area of heavy thunderstorms, but the system already has some low-level spiral bands. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 28°C (82°F), wind shear is moderate (10 - 15 knots), and the atmosphere is moderately moist. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 93L. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20%. Given 93L's well-organized appearance on satellite images late Friday morning, I would put these odds at 40%. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and is unlikely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Tropical Storm Edouard formed Thursday night in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Edouard's formation date of September 12 came almost two weeks later than the typical August 31 formation date for the Atlantic's fifth named storm of the season. Satellite images show that Edouard is steadily organizing, and the official NHC forecast of Edouard becoming a Category 1 hurricane early next week appears to be on track. Edouard is not a threat to any land areas.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
New African tropical wave 93L emerges
A well-organized tropical wave with plenty of spin (93L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday, and was located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on Friday morning. Satellite images show 93L has only a small area of heavy thunderstorms, but the system already has some low-level spiral bands. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 28°C (82°F), wind shear is moderate (10 - 15 knots), and the atmosphere is moderately moist. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 93L. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20%. Given 93L's well-organized appearance on satellite images late Friday morning, I would put these odds at 40%. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and is unlikely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics TS Edouard
low tide 5:12 am LT Moon Rise – 9:00 pm LT
high tide 12:00 pm LT Moon Set –8:59 am LT
low tide 5:42 pm LT Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 11:27 pm LT Sunset – 5:52 pm LT
high tide 12:00 pm LT Moon Set –8:59 am LT
low tide 5:42 pm LT Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 11:27 pm LT Sunset – 5:52 pm LT
No comments:
Post a Comment