Sunday, September 14, 2014

Again, Partly Sunny and Strong Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Sunday, September 14, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction this morning at 10 mph to 15 mph; increasing to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be rough at 2 to 4 feet or higher. Expect these wind and sea conditions to prevail through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.





















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard, located about a thousand miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
2. A broad low pressure system located over the central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers activity. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development at this time, and the low could degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
3. A tropical wave in the W Caribbean will shift W of the area through tonight. Trade winds will decrease across the basin through the week as the pressure gradient weakens. Swells associated with tropical cyclone Edouard well to the NE of the area will continue to propagate across the waters through Mon.

 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  93L
high tide 12:56 am LT                     Moon Rise – 10:38 pm LT
low tide 7:54 am LT                        Moon Set –10:51 am LT
high tide 2:52 pm LT                      Sunrise – 5:36 am LT
low tide 9:19 pm LT                        Sunset – 5:51 pm LT


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