Partly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast

This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan

CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:

The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.

Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.

This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.

In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts

The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.

During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".

It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.

This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday,  October 08, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be  moderate and easterly in direction at 5 mph to 15 mph this morning;increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph this afternoon and evening.  Seas will be moderate at 2 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours as a tropical wave continues to move across the area..

 Fig 1 - Today's Wind and Weather Forecast

 Fig 2 - Today's Weather Forecast CONUSA

 Fig 3 - 24 Hour Forecast CONUSA

 Fig 4 - 3 Day Forecast CONUSA

Fig 5 - Today's 26ºC/78.8ºF Isotherm

Fig 6 - Today's 20ºC/68ºF Isotherm

Fig 7 - Today's Ocean Heat Content

 Fig 8 - Today's Graphicast

 Fig 9 - Today's Caribbean Satellite Image

 Fig 10 - Today's Caribbean Rainbow Loop

 Fig 11 - Today's Tropical Surface Analysis

Fig 12 - Today's NOAA Gulf of Mexico and W. Caribbean Surface Analysis 

Fig 13 - Today's Satellite Water Vapor Image

Fig 13a - Atlantic Satellite Image

 Fig 14 - Today's Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image

Fig14a Today's North American Surface Temperature Contour Map

 Fig 15 - Today's Tropical Surface Forecast

 Fig 16 - Today's NOAA Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis

 Fig 17 - Today's Saharan Air Layer

 Fig 18 - Today's Saharan Air Layer_Pseudo Natural Color

Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer

Fig 20 - SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

The Tropical Weather Outlook

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. The low is expected to drift westward near or over Central America during the next couple of days, and development is likely to be limited by its proximity to land. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over portions of Central America during the next few days.
*Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A 1009 mb low near 12N81W is expected to slowly move westward through Friday night. A tropical wave just W of the Lesser Antilles will move across the E Caribbean through Wednesday night...the central Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night... and the Western Caribbean Friday through Saturday night.
3. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has been decreasing in size and density for the past few days. See Fig 19 above. This is important because there is a hypothesis that the SAL which is a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, inhibits the formation of hurricanes and as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation increases.
4. Atlantic Tropical Waves...See Fig. 20a below.
4.1 An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 15N
southward. This wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation...numerous strong from 7N to 13N
between 18W and 23W.
4.2 An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16N40W 11N43W 6N45W.
This wave is moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. This position is
based on scatterometer data and satellite imagery. Convective
precipitation...numerous strong from 10N to 15N between 32W and
43W...and within 30 NM on either side of 14N44W 16N46W 18N48W.

Fig20a - Atlantic Tropical Waves - 141008

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2014
Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though we should watch an area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda that could develop early next week. If development does occur, Bermuda would likely be the only land area affected by the storm.

Heavy rains in Central America
A low pressure area over Central America will move off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late this week and potentially spawn a tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. The UKMET and GFS models do develop this system, while the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this Pacific disturbance 5-day development odds of 30%. This disturbance is a threat to bring heavy rains and dangerous flooding to Central America over the next five days.

 Fig 21 - Graphical 2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

  Fig 22 - Active Tropical Atlantic Storms

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

The Tides: Moon and Sun

low tide 2:09 am LT                  Moon Rise – 5:57 pm LT
high tide 8:38 am LT                 Moon Set –5:42 am LT
low tide 2:34 pm LT                  Sunrise – 5:38 am LT
high tide 8:17 pm LT                 Sunset – 5:32 pm LT

Moon