Thursday, November 13, 2014

Again Sunny and Calm

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light and easterly in direction at 10 mph or less. Seas will be calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 78°F to 82°F or 25ºC to 28ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.





















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
    1. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
    2. A weak pressure gradient across the forecast area will maintain gentle to moderate winds through early next week.
    3. A cold front from near Morgan City, Louisiana to Boca de Catan in NE Mexico will reach from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tuxpan, Mexico late today...from Tampa, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Thu...and from the Florida Keys to central Bay of Campeche, Mexico by late Fri. Strong winds behind the front over the far western Gulf of Mexico will reach gale force along the Mexican coast S of 23N to Veracruz, Mexico Thu and Thu night. Another front will move off the Texas coast Sun and reach from western Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico by Sun night.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

high tide 1:11 am LT                    Moon Rise –10:24 pm LT
low tide 7:07 am LT                     Moon Set –10:37 am LT
high tide 1:57 pm LT                    Sunrise – 5:48 am LT
low tide 8:53 pm LT                     Sunset – 5:12 pm LT


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