Sunday, November 9, 2014

Again Mostly Sunny and Calm with Light Westerly Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Sunday, November 09, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be westerly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph. Seas will be calm to choppy at 1 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 78°F to 82°F or 25ºC to 28ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.


 




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
    1. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
    2. A weak pressure gradient across the forecast area will maintain gentle to moderate winds through the middle of this week. A cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean waters late today where it will stall and dissipate through Mon.
    3. A cold front reaches from near Naples, Florida to the Bay of Campeche, Mexico. A reinforcing cold front will weaken as it moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico today and merges with the previous front. The combined fronts will move SE of the Gulf of Mexico tonight as high pres builds over the central Gulf of Mexico.
    4. The next cold front is expected to move off the coast of Texas Tue night.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 4:06 am LT                    Moon Rise –7:52 pm LT
high tide 10:57 am LT                 Moon Set –8:11 am LT
low tide 4:51 pm LT                    Sunrise – 5:46 am LT
high tide 10:25 pm LT                 Sunset – 5:12 pm LT


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