Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Partly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Scattered, Intermittent Showers

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Wednesday, July 23, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly cloudy. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain at these strengths for the rest of this week. There is a chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours as a tropical wave continues to pass over us today.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.







Fig 7 - Today's Ocean Heat Content










Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer
Fig 20a - SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - with ITCZ shown

The Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Depression Two near 13.9N 53.2W at 0900 UTC July 23rd is moving WNW or 285 degrees at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. This position is about 2285 miles E and slightly S of Roatan. The depression will maintain its current intensity as it moves into the tropical N Atlantic waters near 14.3N 56.1W late today and near 14.9N 59.9W early Thursday. It is then forecast to weaken to 25 kt near 15.4N 64.0W late Thursday and continue S of Puerto Rico on Friday. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should continue to monitor this system until it is well north of us.
At 11:00 am July23rd TD2 had dissipated. Only remnants remain.TD2 is not expected to reform and strengthen.
A tropical wave will move through the far NW Caribbean today. A second tropical wave will move into the tropical N Atlantic by Friday...the Eastern Caribbean by Saturday and the Central Caribbean Sunday.
Aside from TD2, only 2 significant Tropical Waves are present over the eastern most Atlantic, and they are entangled in the African Monsoonal Trough and/or ITCZ.
Tropical Waves over Africa have become somewhat stronger over the past week, with the easternmost one in Fig 26 below showing a mid-level 'turning' on imagery loops.




 Fig 25 - Atlantic Tropical Waves_140723
Fig 26
low tide 1:05 am LT            Moon Rise – 2:42 am LT
high tide 6:28 am LT           Moon Set –3:55 pm LT
low tide 12:55 pm LT          Sunrise – 5:26 am LT
high tide 7:28 pm LT           Sunset – 6:22 pm LT 


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