The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164
Monday, July 28, 2017
Today, skies will be cloudy with
scattered, intermittent rain showers. Winds will be easterly in
direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 25
mph this afternoon and evening. Seas
will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain
at these strengths for the rest of this week.
The air temperatures will range from
the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to
26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to
84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
made at 8 am EDT Monday July 28, 2014 using data from the Meteosat-9 satellite. Dry, dusty air was present from the coast of Africa westwards across the tropical Atlantic, but was located well to the north of tropical disturbance 93L
The Tropical Weather Outlook
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over
the next several days while it moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph. This wave has been designated 93L by the NHC. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. a tropical wave moving W-NW 20 kt across the Central Caribbean
along 84W will move into the Yucatan later today. A tropical
wave currently across the E Central Atlantic is expected to
encounter favorable environmental conditions across the
Central Atlantic by mid-week and has potential to become a
tropical cyclone.
Forecast for 93L by Dr. Jeff Masters The 12 UTC Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted
that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots,
for the remainder of the week, aiding development. Sea
Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will cool a bit to 27°C on
Tuesday and Wednesday, which will tend to slow development.
Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical
cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET models, predicted in
their 00Z Monday runs that the disturbance would develop
into a tropical depression by Thursday. Several of our
less reliable models, the NAVGEM and Canadian models,
also predicted development. The only reliable model
that did not predict development was the European model,
which historically has had the highest incidence of
failing to predict development when development actually
occurs. The fact that two out of three of the reliable
genesis models predict development bolsters the odds
that development will actually occur. In their 8 am
EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day
odds of development at 70%, up from their 40% forecast
from Sunday. All of the models predict that the disturbance will
continue due west or west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph for
the next five days. The UKMET is the fastest of the models,
predicting that the disturbance will arrive in the Lesser
Antilles Islands on Friday evening. The GFS is slower,
predicting a Saturday morning arrival in the islands.
Once the disturbance crosses west of about 55°W longitude
on Thursday, ocean temperatures will warm to about 28°C,
which should aid development. Dry air to the north will
likely interfere with development late in the week, and
we will have to see if the moderate levels of wind shear
forecast to occur over the tropical Atlantic will be
capable of driving this dry air into the core of the system,
disrupting formation. The disturbance may also have trouble
disentangling itself from the Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ), the band of heavy thunderstorms that circles
the globe in the tropics, which lies just to the south of
the disturbance. Clusters of thunderstorms in the ITCZ may
compete for moisture and energy, slowing development of
the disturbance. The long-range fate of 93L remains highly uncertain, and
will depend upon exactly how far south the center ends up
consolidating when the storm develops. Most of the 20
members of the 06Z Monday run of the GFS ensemble model
(which runs the GFS model at low resolution 20 times with
slightly different initial conditions to show a range of
possible outcomes) showed the disturbance missing the U.S.
East Coast and recurving out to sea next week; four of the
embers showed 93L hitting the Southeast U.S. coast. Most of
the members of the 00Z Monday run of the European ensemble
model showed 93L moving into the Eastern Caribbean on a more
southerly trajectory without re-curving.
Fig 21 - Graphical 2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 25 - Invest 93L Ensemble Computer Models
low tide 3:24 am LT
Moon Rise – 6:48 am LT
high tide 9:23 am LT
Moon Set –7:40 pm LT
low tide 3:25 pm LT
Sunrise – 5:28 am LT
high tide 9:39 pm LT
Sunset – 6:20 pm LT
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