Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Partly Cloudy with a Chance of Scattered Showers

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

 Tuesday, July 29, 2017
Today, skies will be partly cloudy with a chance of scattered, intermittent rain showers. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain at these strengths for the rest of this week.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.




















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer

The Tropical Weather Outlook
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms 
associated with an area of low pressure located about 
1600 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continue 
to become better organized. This system could develop into 
a tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Forecast for 93L by Dr. Jeff Masters
 
Given the high levels of wind shear affecting 93L today, 
it is more likely that NHC will classify it as a tropical
depression on Wednesday than today. The 12 UTC Tuesday 
forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that the current 
high wind shear affecting 93L will relax to the moderate
level, 5 - 15 knots, Wednesday afternoon through Friday, 
aiding development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will 
slowly warm as the system approaches the Caribbean, reaching
28°C by Friday and Saturday. Two of our three reliable models
for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET 
models, predicted in their 00Z Tuesday runs that the disturbance 
would develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. The 
fact that two out of three of the reliable genesis models 
predict development bolsters the odds that development 
will actually occur. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical 
Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day and 5-day odds of 
development at 70% and 80%, respectively.

All of the models predict that the disturbance will
continue west or west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph for the next 
four days. The UKMET and the European models offer the fastest 
solution, predicting  that the disturbance will arrive in the 
northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over 
Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast 
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening. The 
GFS is slower and more to the northeast, predicting a
Saturday morning arrival in the northern Lesser Antilles, 
with passage a  few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico 
occurring on Sunday morning. Dry air to the north of 93L will 
likely interfere with development throughout the week, and we 
will have to see if the moderate levels of wind shear forecast 
to occur will be capable of driving this dry air into the core 
of the system, disrupting formation. The disturbance may 
also have trouble disentangling itself from the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of heavy thunderstorms that 
circles the globe in the tropics, which lies just to the south of the 
disturbance. Clusters of thunderstorms in the ITCZ may compete for 
moisture and energy, slowing development of the disturbance. The Tuesday
 morning runs of our two most reliable models for predicting intensity, 
the LGEM and DSHIPS models, forecast that once 93L became a tropical 
depression, it would intensify into a hurricane within 72 hours. 
However, the dynamical GFDL and HWRF models, which made good intensity 
forecasts for Hurricane Arthur, were much less bullish. The Tuesday 
morning runs of these models predicted that 93L would never reach 
hurricane strength. I give a 10% chance that 93L will be a hurricane on 
Saturday when it makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles 
Islands. If 93L hits the Northern Lesser Antilles as a wet Tropical 
Storm Bertha (not a hurricane), the storm could be more boon than bane 
for the islands. The Northeast Caribbean suffered its driest June in 
recorded history last month, according to NOAA, and many of the islands 
have significant drought problems. 

The GFS and European models have come into better agreement on the 
long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z 
and 06Z Tuesday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run 
at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to
show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking more of a 
northwesterly track early next week, passing to the north of Hispaniola 
and not making an extended track through the Caribbean Sea. This raises 
the odds that the strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. 
will be able to recurve 93L out to sea without the storm hitting the 
mainland U.S. coast. 
 

  
 
 
low tide 4:00 am LT            Moon Rise – 7:36 am LT
high tide 10:06 am LT         Moon Set –8:19 pm LT
low tide 4:03 pm LT           Sunrise – 5:28 am LT
high tide 10:04 pm LT        Sunset – 6:20 pm LT 

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)