Cold Front Remnants Reach the W. Caribbean Sea...Rainy Season Commences with a Whimper!

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast

Thursday Oct 10, 2013

Today, skies will be partly sunny. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. Winds will be moderate and E in direction, this morning, at 10 to 12 mph; increasing to 15 to 20 mph , from the ENE, this afternoon and evening.
Remnants of a stationary, weak cold front extends from the Yucatan Peninsula across western Cuba. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The air temperatures will range from the mid 80s (ºF) to the low 90s (ºF) or 25ºC to 32ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 84°F to 86ºF or 28ºC to 29ºC. Visibility is generally 20 to 80 feet.

Fig 1 - Today's Wind and Weather Forecast

Fig 2 - Today's Graphicast

Fig 3 - Today's Caribbean Satellite Image

Fig 4 - Today's Tropical Surface Analysis

Fig 5 - Today's NOAA Gulf of Mexico and W. Caribbean Surface Analysis

Fig 6 - Today's Satellite Water Vapor Image

Fig 6a - Today's Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image

Fig 7 - Today's Tropical Surface Forecast

Fig 8 - Today's NOAA Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis

Fig 9 - Today's Saharan Air Layer

Fig 9a - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer

Fig 10 - SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

The Tropical Weather Outlook
Showers and thunderstorms associated with Invest 98L, in the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands have become better organized. This morning, it was located at 10.6N x 2948W or about 3800 miles E (96°) of Roatan.. It is moving WNW at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. This system has a medium chance...50 percent...of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. Strong upper-level winds later this week are expected to make further development less likely...and this system now has a medium chance...50 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days
The SAL, has increased slightly in density in the last 24 hours. See Figs. 9 and 9a.

Fig 11 - Today's Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 11a - Invest 98L's Distance and Location from Roatan

Fig 11b - Invest 98L - Rainbow Tropical 

Fig 11c - Computer Model Forecast Tracks Invest 98L

Fig 11d - Google Earth Invest 98L Forecast Track_sphaghetti format

The Tides: Moon and Sun
high tide 12:11 am LT                      Moon Rise – 10:56 am LT
low tide 7:09 am LT                         Moon Set – 10:34 pm LT
high tide 2:30 pm LT                        Sunrise – 5:39 am LT
low tide 8:19 pm LT                         Sunset – 5:30 pm LT

Moon

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