The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
There is a chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours as a tropical wave continues to move across the area.
 |
|
|
 |
|
Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
 |
The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.
2. Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a tropical wave (Invest 90L) located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. While no significant development of this system appears likely during the next day or two, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This disturbance should move generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, and interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
3. Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated with a westward-moving tropical wave (Invest 91L). Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant development of this system remains unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
4. A tropical wave in the NW Caribbean will pass W of the area on Sun. Low pres near 16N54W along a tropical wave will move WNW through the tropical N Atlantic through Sun morning... across the Leeward Islands Sun afternoon...near the Mona Passage Tue morning...and across Hispaniola Tue night through Wed night.
5. A cold front will approach the NW Gulf of Mexico Mon...moving offshore Mon night and quickly extending from the Alabama/Florida border to Tampico, Mexico Tue morning...and then from near SW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed. Gale force winds are possible behind the front in the SW Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon into Tue night.
6. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) continues to decreased in area and density. See Figs. 17. 18 and 19 above.This is important because there is a hypothesis that the SAL which is a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, inhibits the formation of hurricanes and as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation increases.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 4:39 am LT Moon Rise – 8:26 pm LT
high tide 11:29 am LT Moon Set –8:37 am LT
low tide 5:17 pm LT Sunrise – 5:39 am LT
high tide 11:54 pm LT Sunset – 5:30 pm LT
high tide 11:29 am LT Moon Set –8:37 am LT
low tide 5:17 pm LT Sunrise – 5:39 am LT
high tide 11:54 pm LT Sunset – 5:30 pm LT
No comments:
Post a Comment