The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be moderate and easterly in direction at 5 mph to 15 mph this morning;increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be calm to moderate at 1 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.
 |
|
|
Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
 |
The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
2. Tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move slowly across the W Caribbean today. A stationary front over Western Cuba will move back into the Straits of Florida today. A second tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic waters W of 55W Mon...the E Caribbean Tue...and the central Caribbean Wed.
3. A stationary front extends from western Cuba to 26N96W. The front is forecast to become diffuse late Mon. High pressure will then prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Fri.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic. However, the models predicts that an area of low pressure will develop over Central America near Nicaragua late this week, with the European model putting the focus of the low over Nicaragua's Pacific waters, while the GFS model prefers a location in the Southwest Caribbean. NHC is leaning towards the solution offered by the European model, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, give a 5-day probability of 20% for a tropical depression to form off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua this week. We should not discount the GFS model's prediction, though, and keep an eye on the Southwest Caribbean this week. Anything that develops should move slowly to the northwest, bringing very heavy rains to much of Central America late this week.
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 12:40 am LT Moon Rise – 4:16 pm LT
high tide 6:57 am LT Moon Set –3:43 am LT
low tide 1:03 pm LT Sunrise – 5:38 am LT
high tide 6:58 pm LT Sunset – 5:33 pm LT
high tide 6:57 am LT Moon Set –3:43 am LT
low tide 1:03 pm LT Sunrise – 5:38 am LT
high tide 6:58 pm LT Sunset – 5:33 pm LT
No comments:
Post a Comment