The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 10 mph to 15 mph this morning or higher;increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours as the next tropical wave moves across the area.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
This system has been designated Invest 99L and is not a threat to the Bay Islands and north Coast of Honduras
2. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean today will move into the W Caribbean Friday. A second tropical wave will move into the tropical N Atlantic waters Friday...then across the E Caribbean Saturday...and the central Caribbean Sunday and Monday.
3. A cold front is expected to move off the Texas and SW Louisiana coasts on Monday.
4. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has decreased in area and density. See Figs. 17. 18 and 19 above.This is important because there is a hypothesis that the SAL which is a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, inhibits the formation of hurricanes and as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation increases.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on October 09, 2014
Invest 99L in the Atlantic a possible threat to Bermuda
An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, located a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico on Thursday morning, was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Thursday morning. Invest 99L was headed northwest to north-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops showed plenty of spin, since 99L was associated with a non-tropical low pressure system that had already established a vigorous circulation. 99L's heavy thunderstorms were poorly organized and limited to the east side of the center, due to strong upper-level winds from the west pushing dry air into the system. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was moderate, 5 - 15 knots. Tthese conditions are favorable for development, but disturbances getting their start from a cold-cored upper level low like 99L have plenty of cold, dry air aloft, which retards development into a tropical system. The 8 am Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for slow development through Saturday, with moderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 29°C (84°F.) On Sunday, wind shear will rise above 25 knots and the atmosphere will dry, limiting the chances for development. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the European, showed 99L developing in its 00Z Thursday run, and passing very close to Bermuda by Sunday evening. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Friday afternoon, if necessary.
At longer ranges, both the GFS and European models show development of Atlantic tropical depressions in 6 - 10 days, though they don't agree on where these storms might occur (the GFS develops something over the Bahamas, while the European model develops a tropical wave between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa.) While 6 - 10 day genesis forecasts are not to be trusted, the fact that both of these models are showing developing systems is an indication that the large-scale atmospheric conditions that have suppressed tropical storm formation during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season may ease some next week, possibly due to the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 2:56 am LT Moon Rise – 6:46 pm LT
high tide 9:31 am LT Moon Set –6:41 am LT
low tide 3:22 pm LT Sunrise – 5:38 am LT
high tide 9:01 pm LT Sunset – 5:31 pm LT
high tide 9:31 am LT Moon Set –6:41 am LT
low tide 3:22 pm LT Sunrise – 5:38 am LT
high tide 9:01 pm LT Sunset – 5:31 pm LT
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