The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Tuesday, October
28, 2014
Today, skies will be mosttly cloudy. Winds will be light and variable in direction at 5
mph to 10 mph or less. Seas
will be moderate to calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will
range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or
24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC
to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a chance of
scattered heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, as a low
pressure system continues to move over the area.
Not Available
Not Available
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. The National Hurricane
Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hanna,
located inland over northern Nicaragua.
2. A tropical wave,designated
Invest 95L, is interacting with an upper-level trough continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
from the Lesser Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for
several hundred miles. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves northwestward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days since upper-
level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive. By the
weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development. Regardless of development, this system will produce
brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48
hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5
days...low...20 percent.
3. The remnants of former
tropical depression Hanna continue to support heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Honduras. The remnant trough of tropical
cyclone Hanna will shift W across the Gulf of Honduras today. A
tropical wave over the E Caribbean will continue W through the
central Caribbean on Wed and Thu and lose identity in the W
Caribbean on Fri and Sat. A second tropical wave currently passing
through the Windwards will continue W through the central Caribbean
on Thu and Fri...and through the W Caribbean on Sat. The northern
segment of this second tropical wave will move NW across the
tropical Atlantic waters and the Leewards today.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
Remnants of Hanna bringing heavy rain to Central America
Tropical Storm Hanna dissipated on Monday evening over northern Nicaragua, just 14 hours after springing into life less than 50 miles off of the coast. Visible satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that the remnants of Hanna were over Northern Honduras and the Western Caribbean, and these heavy thunderstorms will move westwards over Belize, Northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday, bringing areas of 3 - 5" of rain. The center of ex-Hanna was located just inland from the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday morning, and was being tracked as Invest 96L by NHC.
Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 95L.
Invest 95L near the northern Lesser Antilles a possible threat to Bermuda
An area of disturbed weather (95L) associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure is near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed northwestward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Wind shear is high, 15 - 25 knots, and water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its north and west that is likely interfering with development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, about 29°C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain high for the next five days, limiting the prospects for development. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict development of 95L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. The only land area at risk from 95L is Bermuda.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
Remnants of Hanna bringing heavy rain to Central America
Tropical Storm Hanna dissipated on Monday evening over northern Nicaragua, just 14 hours after springing into life less than 50 miles off of the coast. Visible satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that the remnants of Hanna were over Northern Honduras and the Western Caribbean, and these heavy thunderstorms will move westwards over Belize, Northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday, bringing areas of 3 - 5" of rain. The center of ex-Hanna was located just inland from the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday morning, and was being tracked as Invest 96L by NHC.
Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 95L.
Invest 95L near the northern Lesser Antilles a possible threat to Bermuda
An area of disturbed weather (95L) associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure is near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed northwestward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Wind shear is high, 15 - 25 knots, and water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its north and west that is likely interfering with development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, about 29°C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain high for the next five days, limiting the prospects for development. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict development of 95L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. The only land area at risk from 95L is Bermuda.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics Remnants of Hanna
Fig 26a - Storm Statistics Invest 95L
low tide 5:33 am LT Moon Rise – 9:56 am LT
high tide 1:05 pm LT Moon Set –9:36 pm LT
low tide 6:56 pm LT Sunrise – 5:43 am LT
high tide 12:08 am LT Sunset – 5:20 pm LT
high tide 1:05 pm LT Moon Set –9:36 pm LT
low tide 6:56 pm LT Sunrise – 5:43 am LT
high tide 12:08 am LT Sunset – 5:20 pm LT
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