Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Again Sunny and Calm

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday,  October 22, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be  variable in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less.  Seas will be calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.







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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, located over the Bay of Campeche. At 4 am CDT, the center of TD 9 was located at 19.4N 92.3W or 439 miles NW of Roatan ( See Fig 24a below ).  Movement was E at 6 mph. Maximum winds of 35 mph.
2. Tropical Depression Nine over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to intensify to tropical storm strength today...then move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. The system is forecast to enter into the W Caribbean Friday as a 30 kt tropical depression...and remain a 30 kt system through Sun as it shifts eastward...reaching near 18.5N 84.5W late Sat night...and 18.5N 82.5W late Sun night. A cold front will sink across the Yucatan Channel late Sat where it will meander through Sun night. A tropical wave in the tropical N Atlantic zones will shift W across the Lesser Antilles Wed...move through the E Caribbean Thu...the central Caribbean Fri...and into the W Caribbean late Sat. Interests in the Bay Islands, particularly those on the north side of the islands, and the north coast of Honduras should monitor the progress of this system as it moves towards us.

Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2014

Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and will bring dangerous heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula the next two days. Satellite loops show that TD 9 has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy showed only one spiral band associated with the storm. Dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the western Gulf of Mexico is slowing development, but the topography of the mountains along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche is helping to create counter-clockwise spin for TD 9, and likely aided in its formation despite the high wind shear. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5°C. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating TD 9 on Wednesday morning, and found a well-defined surface circulation, top surface winds near 35 mph, and a central pressure of 1003 mb at 8:25 am EDT.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 9 in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy showing one spiral band associated with TD 9 at 8:30 am EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014.

Forecast for TD 9
TD 9 is expected to move eastwards into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, and likely has time to intensify into a 45 mph tropical storm, at the strongest, before making landfall. (The next name on the tropical storm list is Hanna.) The storm will spend most of Thursday with its center over land, and is small enough that passage over land may cause it to dissipate. Once TD 9 or its remnants are over the Western Caribbean on Friday and Saturday, it will interact with a trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicts that while wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Thursday - Saturday, the trough will inject a large amount of dry air, discouraging development. The trough of low pressure will pull out of the Western Caribbean on Saturday, and may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean that would potentially have the capability to develop into a strong tropical storm or hurricane, as predicted by many of the ensemble members of the 00Z Wednesday morning run of the GFS model. The European and UKMET models are not showing this solution, but I think we have to be concerned about the possibility of a potentially dangerous tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean early next week. It's a complicated meteorological situation, and the long-term forecast is murky.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Depression Nine -NHC Forecast Discussion

After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm
activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently
cloud tops have warmed.  Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation
on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized.
The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt.  An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression later this morning to check its intensity.

The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but
the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within
the next 24 hours.  This should allow for some strengthening of the
system over the warm waters of the Eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to
reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.  After weakening due to its
passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system
and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent
reintensification.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one.  Since the system is quite small, it might be
disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and
weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC
forecast.

The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt.  A generally
westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system
across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean
Sea during the forecast period.  The official track forecast is
nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north
of the multi-model consensus.  It should be noted that due to the
possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in
the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more
uncertain by days 4 and 5.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init  22/0900z 19.4n  92.3w   30 kt  35 mph
 12h  22/1800z 19.4n  91.6w   40 kt  45 mph
 24h  23/0600z 19.3n  90.6w   45 kt  50 mph...inland
 36h  23/1800z 19.1n  89.6w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 48h  24/0600z 18.9n  88.5w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 72h  25/0600z 18.5n  86.5w   30 kt  35 mph...over water
 96h  26/0600z 18.5n  84.5w   30 kt  35 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h  27/0600z 18.5n  82.5w   30 kt  35 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

$$
forecaster Pasch












 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
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Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  TD 9
low tide 1:12 am LT                Moon Rise – 4:34 am LT
high tide 7:57 am LT               Moon Set –4:49 pm LT
low tide 1:39 pm LT                Sunrise – 5:41 am LT
high tide 7:04 pm LT               Sunset – 5:23 pm LT


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