Friday, October 31, 2014

Again Partly Cloudy with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Friday, October 31, 2014
Today, skies will be partly cloudy. Winds will be light and northerly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph. Seas will be moderate to calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a chance of scattered heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.


Fig 1a - Today's Forecasted Wind Speeds in the NW Caribbean Sea

  














Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
    2. A tropical wave between Jamaica and Panama (See Fig 12 above) will move across the SW Caribbean through Sat. A strong cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Sat night and reach from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Sun, then stall and gradually dissipate from near the Mona Passage to Costa Rica on Sun night into Mon. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will spread E across the Caribbean in its wake...diminishing Tue and Tue night.


The Atlantic Goes Quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
    Quiet in the Atlantic
    The Atlantic is quiet today, with no areas of concern to discuss. None of the three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts any development in the Atlantic over the next five days. With November at hand and El Niño-like atmospheric conditions in place, the odds of getting Tropical Storm Isaias before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 are probably around 30%.     
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
high tide 3:12 am LT                Moon Rise –12:35 pm LT
low tide 9:30 am LT                 Moon Set –12:30 am LT
high tide 3:54 pm LT                Sunrise – 5:44 am LT
low tide 10:09 pm LT               Sunset – 5:18 pm LT


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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Partly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday, October 30, 2014
Today, skies will be partly cloudy. Winds will be light and ENE to N in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less. Seas will be moderate to calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a chance of scattered heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, as a low pressure system continues to move slowly out of the area and west of us.


The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
    2. A tropical wave will move through the central Caribbean today and lose identity in the W Caribbean on Fri. A weak low pressure near 19N64W 1008 mb will move along the N coast of Puerto Rico today and along the N coast of Hispaniola on Fri dragging a weak trough W across the Caribbean waters to the N of 16N. A strong cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night...reaching from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Sat night...then dissipating from the Mona passage to Costa Rica on Sun night into Mon with fresh to locally strong NE winds spreading E across the Caribbean in its wake.
high tide 1:51 am LT               Moon Rise –11:44 am LT
low tide 8:17 am LT                Moon Set –11:31 pm LT
high tide 3:07 pm LT               Sunrise – 5:43 am LT
low tide 9:15 pm LT                Sunset – 5:19 pm LT



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Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Partly Sunny with Calm Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Today, skies will be partly cloudy. Winds will be light and variable in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less. Seas will be moderate to calm at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
There is a chance of scattered heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, as a low pressure system continues to move slowly out of the area and west of us.


Not Available Today














Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are currently marginally conducive, and some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Afterwords, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
    2. A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is moving inland over Belize while it produces disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Now that the low is moving inland, significant re-development is unlikely.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
    3. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean will continue W through the central Caribbean on Wed and Thu and lose identity in the W Caribbean on Fri. Weak low pres near 19N62W will move to near 19N65W tonight...near 20N67W Thu night and near 20N69W Fri night with the possibility of tropical cyclone formation throughout the period. A strong dry cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Fri night...reach from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua on Sat night...reach from the Mona Passage to NW Costa Rica on Sun night with fresh N winds spreading across the Caribbean in its wake.
    4. A cold front will move into the N Gulf of Mexico today and reach from the Florida Big Bend to 25N86W on Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the N central and NE Gulf of Mexico on Fri night and move SE of the area Sat night with high pressure building down from its wake through Sun night.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 24 - Forecast Track Invest 95L

 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  95L
high tide 12:08 am LT Moon Rise –10:50 am LT
low tide 6:56 am LT Moon Set –10:33 pm LT
high tide 2:12 pm LT Sunrise – 5:43 am LT
low tide 8:11 pm LT Sunset – 5:19 pm LT


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