TS Richard Update

There has not been much change in Richard's organization or direction of travel. The next Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled for 8pm tonight.
Today Richard continued moving SSE at 3 mph. At 3pm LT, the center was located at 16N x 80.4W or about 405 miles due east of us. This position is accurate to within 45 nm.

Fig 1 - TS Richard's center position 101021 at 3pm LT

Richard is forecast to continue traveling SSE through tonight and part of tomorrow, before beginning a gradual turn to the west. The official NHC track takes it south to latitude 15.7N before it begins its turn. 

I believe the further south it goes before turning, the closer it will come to the Bay Islands and North Coast of Honduras. NHC_Forecast Advisory

The NHC wind probabilities for Guanaja are that there is a 35% chance of 34kt; a 19% chance of 50kt; and an 8% chance of 64kt winds there on Saturday and Sunday. Wind Probabilities

The computer model runs as shown in figure 2, show a closer grouping which suggests to me, we will either take a direct hit at tropical storm strength or it will pass to the north of us as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. By late tomorrow, we should have a much better idea of the path it will follow.

All interests in the Bay Islands and on the north coast of Honduras should be preparing for and monitoring this storm.

Fig 3 - TS Richard computer model runs 101021 Noon LT

Depending on what the Hurricane Hunter finds on this evening's run, I may or may not post again today.

Have a wonderful evening!