Mostly Cloudy

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast

This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan

CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

Saturday, September 10, 2016
Skies will be mostly cloudy. Winds will be mostly easterly in direction at 5 mph to 20 mph or less. Seas will be  moderate to calm at 1 to 3 ft. or higher. The air temperatures will range from the high 70sºF to the mid to high 80s ºF or 26°C to 27ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 80°F to 82°F or 26ºC to 27ºC.

Fig 1 - Today's Wind and Weather Forecast

Fig 2 - 3 Day Cloud Cover-Rain Forecast

The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Gulf of Mexico - A weak ridge will prevail across the northern Gulf through early next week. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move W across the SW Gulf through Sun night. A surface trough and weak area of low pressure in the Straits of Florida will move W across the SE Gulf through mon.
2. Caribbean Sea - A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the W Caribbean tonight...and move W of the area early on Mon. Large NE to E swell is forecast to propagate into the far NE tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Tue ahead of low pressure that is expected to pass to the NE of the area. The swell is forecast to subside on Wed.
3. A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although the shower activity associated with the system has not become any better organized since yesterday, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
4. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
5. Satellite and radar data indicate that the weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Midpoint review: A fairly active, not-too-destructive Atlantic season
Now that we’re at the climatological midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10 or 11, depending upon which statistics one uses), it’s a good time to review how this season is shaping up. We can compare this season to what one might expect from climatology based on data compiled by Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University). As a climatological benchmark, Klotzbach uses the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010, which is almost evenly split between the pre-1995 inactive period and the post-1995 active period in the Atlantic. Here’s where we stand as of September 9 relative to the amount of activity that an average season would have produced by now:

8 named storms (typical by 9/9 is 6.5)
4 hurricanes (typical by 9/9 is 2.7)
1 major hurricane (typical by 9/9 is 1.2)
40.7 ACE, or accumulated cyclone energy (typical by 9/9 is 46.2)

This season is running a bit below average on ACE, as well as the number of hurricane days and major-hurricane days (not shown here). We are considerably above average on the number of named storms and hurricanes. If we continued the rest of the season at exactly this pace, we'd end up with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 majors. That would line up pretty well with the consensus of the various forecast groups as summarized by Phil Klotzbach. Here again, we're running ahead of the consensus on the number of named storms and hurricanes, but a bit under expectation on the amount of ACE. The four tropical storms this year were all quite weak (Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Fiona). About 60% of the entire season’s ACE thus far--more than every other tropical cyclone combined--was generated by long-lived Hurricane Gaston, which stayed far out to sea. The most destructive Atlantic system of the year thus far, Hurricane Hermine, produced total economic damages that could approach $1 billion.  We’ve had one quite deadly storm this year: Hurricane Earl, which hit Belize as a Category 1 storm on August 4, then made a second landfall on Mexico’s Bay of Campeche coast on August 6. Earl killed 67 people and left 12 others missing; 57 of the fatalities were in Mexico, due to flooding and mudslides. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3423

 

Fig 3 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer

The Tides: Moon and Sun
high tide 3:53 am LT                                     Sunrise – 5:35 am LT>85° East
low tide  10:22 am LT                                    Sunset – 5:52 pm LT < 275° NW
high tide 5:23 pm LT                                     Moon Rise – 1:02 pm LT<109° East
low tide 10:32 pm LT                                    Moon Set – 11:04 am LT>251º West

Fig 4 - Moon

Day Light Hours:  12 hours, 9 minutes, (-52 sec)