Monday, September 8, 2014

Partly Sunny with Moderatw Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday, September 08, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 15 mph. Seas will be moderate at 2 to 4 feet. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer





The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. Invest 91L is a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands which is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Currently this system does not pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor it as it moves west towards us.
2. A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean will continue to move W through the W Caribbean today and Tuesday. A second tropical wave move through the tropical Atlantic waters Tuesday night and Wednesday and across the E Caribbean on Thursday and Friday.

African Wave 91L Worth Watching; Record Quiet Spell Ends in Western Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2014

A tropical wave (91L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday is headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 27.5°C (82°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate ( 5 - 15 knots) for the next five days, favoring continued development. However, development will be slowed by the fact that the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) should grow steadily grow drier. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 60%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a long-range threat to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa at approximately 8 am EDT Monday September 8, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  91L
low tide 1:42 am LT            Moon Rise – 5:43 pm LT
high tide 7:53 am LT           Moon Set –4:59 am LT
low tide 2:03 pm LT           Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 8:05 pm LT          Sunset – 5:55 pm LT


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