Thursday, September 11, 2014

Again, Partly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas.

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday, September 11, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction this morning at 5 mph to 10 mph; increasing to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 4 feet. Expect cloudiness to continue throughout the day, as a tropical wave continues to pass over us. Early morning satellite images show a large area of disturbed weather 150 to 200 miles to the east of us. It is moving slowly W towards us. There is a slight chance of scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer







The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. Shower activity associated with Invest 91L, is a broad area of low pressure centered about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It has become better organized during the past several hours. If current trends continue, a tropical depression could form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the west-northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
    Currently this system does not pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor it, as it moves west towards us.
2. Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area near the northwestern Bahamas is currently poorly organized, and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today has been canceled. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for significant development while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward southern Florida. Regardless of development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
3. A tropical wave moving across the tropical N Atlantic will move across the E Caribbean today and Friday...and across the central Caribbean Saturday and Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue to blow mainly across the south- central Caribbean.

Halfway Point of Hurricane Season Arrives; TD 6 Forms in Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2014

September 11 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season (based on the past 100 years of data, 1914-2013)--and we're doing much better than usual so far. Only four named storms have formed, with three becoming hurricanes (and no major hurricanes.) An average Atlantic hurricane season has 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the mid-point of the season. The four storms so far in 2014 have inflicted much less punishment than usual for half of a hurricane season. Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane then blasted the Maritime Provinces of Canada as a powerful hurricane-force extratropical storm, but damage was low by Category 2 hurricane standards--just $14 million, with most of the damage occurring in Canada. Hurricane Bertha caused two deaths along the U.S. East Coast due to rough surf and strong rip currents, but did insignificant damage as it recurved out to sea, just off the coast. Hurricane Cristobal also did minimal damage, but killed a total of seven people--three swimmers in the U.S., and flood victims in Haiti (2), the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Dolly, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on September 2 with 50 mph winds and torrential rains, killed one person and did millions in damage. Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to make a ruinous hurricane season. Recall that 2012's worst storm--Hurricane Sandy--didn't occur until the third week of October!



Bahamas disturbance 92L struggling to develop
A small area of low pressure over the Northwest Bahamas (Invest 92L) has become more organized since Wednesday, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Long range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that 92L has low-level spiral bands with a good degree of rotation, and satellite loops show that a small surface circulation has developed. However, strong upper level winds out of the north-northeast are creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and the atmosphere is quite dry to the north, making development of 92L unlikely today and Friday. The current westwards 5 - 10 mph motion of 92L will carry the disturbance over Florida on Friday, and the storm should emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F) over the Eastern Gulf, but the presence of dry air and high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should keep any development of 92L over the Gulf of Mexico slow. The disturbance will likely bring rains of 1 - 3" to much of Florida through Sunday. One of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, does develop 92L over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 92L off the coast of Florida.

Central Atlantic Tropical Depression Six not a threat to land
Tropical Depression Six has formed in the Central Atlantic about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show TD 6 has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are becoming more organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moderately moist air mass, has marginally warm (SSTs) of 27°C (81°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor continued development. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate (5 - 20 knots) and the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) would remain moderately moist this week, favoring development. TD 6 does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, U.S. East Coast, or Bermuda. It remains to be seen if TD 6 will be a threat to the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook


Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability


 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  TD6
low tide 4:12 am LT                         Moon Rise – 8:00 pm LT
high tide 10:47 am LT                      Moon Set –8:11 am LT
low tide 4:35 pm LT                         Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 10:21 pm LT                      Sunset – 5:53 pm LT


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