The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Sunday,
September 07, 2014
Today,
skies will be cloudy. Winds will be easterly in direction at 2 mph to
5 mph or less. Seas
will be calm at 1 to 2 feet. There is a chance of scattered rain
showers with the passage of a tropical wave today.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
1.
Invest 91L, a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave that
recently emerged off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward
or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
*
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
*
Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
2.
Invest 90L, a small area of low pressure located about 650 miles west of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
*
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
*
Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.
Currently
none of these systems pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north
coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor them as they
move west towards us.
3.
A tropical wave currently along 84W will continue to move W through
the W Caribbean through tonight. A second tropical wave over the E
Caribbean will move through the central Caribbean on Monday and
Tuesday reaching the W Caribbean on Wednesday and Thursday. A third
tropical wave move through the tropical Atlantic waters on Wednesday
and into the E Caribbean on Thursday and Friday.
African Tropical Waves 90L and 91L Pose Little Threat
By:
Jeff Masters
, 3:26 PM GMT on September 07, 2014
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of tropical waves 90L and 91L off the coast of Africa at approximately 8 am EDT Sunday September 7, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
New African Tropical Wave 91L
A tropical wave (91L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday is headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 27.5°C (82°F) beneath it, and is experiencing moderate wind shear. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 60%, respectively. The wave should take a more northwesterly track by mid-week, and does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 90L
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 91L
low
tide 12:57 am LT Moon Rise – 4:51 pm LT
high
tide 7:00 am LT Moon Set –3:57 am LT
low
tide 1:17 pm LT Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high
tide 7:27 pm LT Sunset – 5:56 pm LT
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