The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Saturday,
September 13, 2014
Today,
skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction this
morning at 10 mph to 15 mph; increasing to 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon and evening. Seas
will be rough at 2 to 4 feet or higher. Expect these wind and sea
conditions to prevail through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of
scattered rain showers and thunder storms.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
 |
|
|
 |
|
Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
 |
The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become a little less organized this morning. Some development of this system is still possible before it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph into an area unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the W Caribbean late Sun and shift W of the area through early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist mainly across the S Central Caribbean through Sunday night...diminishing through next week. Tropical storm Edouard is expected to pass well to the NE of the Leeward Islands Sunday and Monday...delivering swell to around 10 ft to the tropical N Atlantic waters mainly N of 15N.
Currently none of these systems pose a threat to the Bay Islands and north coast of Honduras. But all interests here should monitor them, as they move westward towards us.
4. The Saharan Air Layer remains relatively small. See Figs. 17, 18 and 19 above.
Tropical Storm Edouard not a threat to land
Tropical Storm Edouard continues chugging to the northwest at 12 mph over the Central Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas. Satellite images show that Edouard has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms, but the storm remains well-organized. With wind shear expected to diminish by Sunday and ocean temperatures expected to be warm, the official NHC forecast of Edouard becoming a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday night appears to be on track.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
Tropical wave 93L
A tropical wave (93L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday was located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Saturday morning, and was headed west to west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite images show 93L has a good degree of spin and is fairly well-organized, but has little heavy thunderstorm activity. The system is headed into a region with cooler waters and dry air, and none of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 93L. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development odds of 20%.
Figure 3. MODIS true-color image of Invest 93L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 13, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 25 - Storm Statistics 93L
low tide 6:24 am LT Moon Rise – 9:49 pm LT
high tide 1:25 pm LT Moon Set –9:56 am LT
low tide 7:23 pm LT Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 12:56 pm LT Sunset – 5:51 pm LT
high tide 1:25 pm LT Moon Set –9:56 am LT
low tide 7:23 pm LT Sunrise – 5:35 am LT
high tide 12:56 pm LT Sunset – 5:51 pm LT
No comments:
Post a Comment