Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Again Today Mostly Sunny

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday, September 02, 2017
Again today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 10 mph to 15 mph or higher this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph from the east this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy to rough at 2 to 4 feet or higher. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
1. Invest 99L is now Tropical Storm Dolly and is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is not a threat to the Bay Island and north coast of Honduras.

2. An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development through the weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move into the western Caribbean through Wednesday night and W of the area Thursday. Another tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean by late Thursday...and into the NW Caribbean Friday and W of the area Saturday. A third tropical wave will pass W of 55W Wednesday and enter the eastern Caribbean Thursday, then move across the central Caribbean through Saturday.

Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2014

Say hello to the Atlantic's fourth named storm of 2014--Tropical Storm Dolly, which formed Tuesday morning in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Radar loops out of Altamira, Mexico show Dolly's heavy thunderstorms were already beginning to move ashore over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border Tuesday morning, though the heaviest activity was still well offshore. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed the classic appearance of a tropical storm struggling with wind shear--a low level circulation center partially exposed to view, with the heavy thunderstorms limited to one side (the south side) by strong upper-level winds. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30°C (86°F), but dry air to the north of Dolly was being driven into the center of the storm's circulation by strong upper-level winds from the north-northwest, keeping development slow. Dolly doesn't have long over water before it makes landfall on Wednesday morning, and likely will not have time to intensify into a hurricane, given the dry air to its north and continued moderate levels of wind shear expected to affect the storm. None of the Tuesday morning runs of the reliable hurricane intensity models showed Dolly becoming a hurricane. Heavy rain is the main threat of the storm, and Dolly's rains will be capable of generating dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous terrain of Mexico near and to the south of the landfall location. The heavy rain threat will be less to the north of the landfall location, due to the presence of dry air.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Dolly.

Say Hello, Dolly--again!
Dolly's formation on September 2 comes more than a week later than the usual formation date of the Atlantic's fourth named storm, August 23. The 2014 version of Tropical Storm Dolly is the eighth appearance of a storm named Dolly in the Atlantic. Dolly made its first appearance in 1953 as hurricane that weakened before passing over Bermuda. Dolly's most recent appearance, as a 2008 Category 2 hurricane that hit near the Texas/Mexico border, was its most damaging--$1.5 billion in losses were recorded. This was not enough to get the name Dolly retired, though, and I expect we will see the name Dolly get recycled again in 2020. (The record number of appearances of a storm name for the Atlantic is ten, held by Arlene.)

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
A tropical wave is expected to come off the coast of Africa on Thursday and move to the west at about 15 mph. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday. Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development by Saturday of the wave, and in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with no long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated. 
 

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability




 Fig 26 - Storm Statistics  TS Dolly
high tide 2:10 am LT           Moon Rise – 12:15 pm LT
low tide 9:06 am LT            Moon Set –11:56 pm LT
high tide 4:26 pm LT          Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
low tide 10:00 pm LT         Sunset – 6:00 pm LT


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