Monday, August 18, 2014

Partly Sunny, Light Winds and Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Monday, August 18, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less this morning; increasing to 15 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate to calm at 1 to 3 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
Expect increasing cloudiness and rain with the passage of approaching tropical waves.

Coral Spawning
Divers should look for signs of coral spawning on night dives for the next 2 to 3 days.














Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
Shower activity with a weak and elongated area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands remains disorganized. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days, but beyond that time, environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for development when the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean today will move through the W Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday. A second tropical tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic waters on Tuesday and Wednesday...pass through the E Caribbean on Thursday reaching the W Caribbean waters on Friday. A third tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic waters late in the week.

Quiet in the tropics
A tropical wave located in the middle Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is almost entirely lacking due to high wind shear of 20 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by a very dry airmass. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 26°C, but will be warmer late in the week as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. The Sunday morning runs of two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, did show some weak development of the wave by late in the week. The models differed wildly in the forward speed of the disturbance, with the UKMET model predicting the wave would pass a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night, and the European model predicting that this would not occur until Sunday night. Given the rather divergent opinions of the models and the presence of so much dry air, the risk of development this week is low. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively.   



 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
high tide 3:56 am LT          Moon Rise – 12:45 am LT
low tide 10:45 am LT         Moon Set –1:00 pm LT
high tide 5:22 pm LT          Sunrise – 5:32 am LT
low tide 11:33 pm LT         Sunset – 6:10 pm LT


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