The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Saturday,
August 23, 2017
Today,
skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be very light and mostly
easterly in direction at 5 mph or less. Seas
will be calm at 1 to 3 feet.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. It will feel much warmer then
this with little or no wind. Expect these weather conditions to
prevail through Tuesday of next week.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
An area of low pressure, Invest 96L, centered near 20N 70.5W is moving west at around 15 kt. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two over SW N Atlantic waters as the low passes just north of Haiti today and near the Turks and Caicos islands late Saturday into Sunday. This low is expected to take a more northerly turn on Sunday away from the Caribbean region. A tropical wave will move into the tropical N Atlantic by Wednesday. It currently poses no danger to the Bay Islands and North Coast of Honduras. The Saharan Air Layer has decreased markedly, this past week, in both size and density. If this continues, expect tropical storm and cyclone formation to increase in the next 4 to 8 weeks. Hurricane season in the western hemisphere statistically peaks on September 11th.Atlantic Disturbance 96L (Interim Update)
Aside from the increase in convection along with the development of a high level anti-cyclone above the lower level circulation today, there has been little additional development of 96L.
Based on the latest RECON data, along with radar and satellite imagery, the broad area of Low pressure is currently located over Mona Pass near 19N/68W and will be approaching the northeastern tip of the Dominican Republic soon as the system continues on an essentially westward track at near 20Kts. The lowest surface pressure is estimated near 1007mb and the strongest observed winds are near tropical storm (gale) force in a small area to the northeast of the primary circulation.
The latest global model runs continue to call for the developing cyclone to move along or just off the northern coast of Hispaniola overnight, and then slow its forward movement on Saturday as it moves into the lower Bahamas. Once in this region, and some distance away from the high terrain of Hispaniola, the system should be able to spin-up a core circulation and attain tropical storm intensity in 24-36 hours.
With the east-west orientated sub-tropical ridge over the SW Atlantic still forecast to weaken in vicinity of the Bahamas by early Sunday, the system should see it’s forward movement slow even further as it begins to turn northwestward and then northward by late Sunday or by Monday. While there continues to be significant uncertainty on this development, the fairly good continuity among the more reliable models on both the track and intensity forecasts suggests reasonably good confidence that the cyclone will turn northward and ultimately take a track that takes the system out to sea without serious impact to the US mainland next week. Of course, as with any tropical system still in the formative stages, along with the potential for subtle changes in the actual location and strength of the sub-tropical ridge & steering flow – significant uncertainty in the ultimate track and intensity remains.
Elsewhere across the Tropical Atlantic
There is another large scale easterly wave - but with little convection - approaching the central Atlantic along 35W, and a somewhat stronger system about to emerge off the west African coast. However, no significant development of either wave is expected during the next 5 or more days.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 96L
low
tide 1:26 am LT Moon Rise – 3:56 am LT
high
tide 7:24 am LT Moon Set –4:57 pm LT
low
tide 1:25 pm LT Sunrise – 5:33 am LT
high
tide 7:45 pm LT Sunset – 6:07 pm LT
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