The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Wednesday,
August 20, 2017
Today,
skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 10
mph to 15 mph; increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph this afternoon and
evening. Seas
will be choppy to rough at 2 to 4 feet.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
1.
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with an
elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves west- northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean
Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern Caribbean
Sea should closely monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2.
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system should be slow to occur during the next
day or two while it moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph.
After that time, development of this system is not anticipated as it
begins to interact with the disturbance located to its west.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
The
tropical low pressure, mentioned (1) above, near 10N53W is expected
to move NW to near 13N55W tonight...pass through the central Lesser
Antilles on Thursday night...pass S of Puerto Rico on Friday
night...pass S of Hispaniola on Saturday and reach the N central
Caribbean late Sunday...with potential for tropical cyclone formation
throughout the period. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the
North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it
tracks westward toward us.
96L Slowly Organizing on its Way to the Lesser Antilles
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
The wave should continue to organize over the next two days, and pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night and Friday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds--particularly to the southern islands in the chain. The wave will then track west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 0Z Wednesday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting development into a tropical depression south of Puerto Rico. All three models show that on Saturday, 96L will pass over or just south of the island of Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. With dry air expected to be in the Caribbean, the moderate levels of wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while in the Caribbean--a disorganized system that struggles against dry air. The most likely day for development into a tropical depression is Friday, when the storm will be south of Puerto Rico.
A second disturbance near 14°N, 46°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 10%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 96L
low
tide 12:12 am LT Moon Rise – 1:29 am LT
high
tide 5:39 am LT Moon Set –2:41 pm LT
low
tide 12:07 pm LT Sunrise – 5:33 am LT
high
tide 6:29 pm LT Sunset – 6:09 pm LT
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