The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Wednesday,
August 27, 2017
Today,
skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be very light and variable in
direction at 5 mph to 10 mph or less. Seas
will be calm at 1 to 3 feet or less. There is a very slight chance of
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during
the early morning, late night hours. Expect these weather conditions
through tomorrow.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. It will feel much warmer then
this, with little or no wind.
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
.jpg)
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
 |
The Tropical Weather Outlook
The
National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
- A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is now expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days. However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
- A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A
tropical wave along 67W will reach the central Caribbean tonight and
pass through the western Caribbean Thursday night through Saturday. A
more vigorous tropical wave near 54W pass through the tropical N
Atlantic today...reach the eastern Caribbean Friday and the central
Caribbean by Sunday night. A third tropical wave well E of the area
will pass through the tropical N Atlantic over the weekend.
CRISTOBAL heads Out to Sea / Invest 98 in GOM / Disturbance approaches CARIB
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
CRISTOBAL is located about 360NM SE of Cape Hatteras moving North at around 11Kts. The storm remains a minimal hurricane with sustained surface winds around 65Kts. ALL models call for the storm to turn NNE and then NE at an accelerated pace as an upper air, mid-latitude TROF moves into the Northeastern US. While the storm may see some addition intensification from the high level divergent flow ahead of the NE U.S. TROF and associated baroclinic forcing – the storm will be transitioning rather quickly tomorrow to an extratropical storm as it heads northeast into the NORATL shipping lanes. (I for one am glad to see this extremely tough system to forecast departing our area of interest!)
INVEST 98L and ‘EX INVEST 97L’
While NHC dropped 97L early yesterday – it added INVEST 98L earlier this morning. INVEST 98L in the NW GOM originated at the ‘tail end’ of a very strong mid-level Dry Line that surged south/southwest from the SE US across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) 2 days ago – triggering a line of very strong T-storms along and ahead of it. While the dry line boundary has begun to fade away (though relatively dry air continues to dominate much of the GOM) a small surface circulation has formed in the NW GOM, centered about 200NM east of Corpus Christi, TX. An area of convection, with some isolated deep convection, is near and to the North and Northeast of the Low itself. The convection and surface circulation is quasi-stationary, and with wind shear of 30Kts over most of the system, significant development is unlikely for at least the next 24 hours. The first run of specialized tropical cyclone models (12Z cycle) are in remarkably good agreement on forecasting the system to move slowly westward into south Texas in 48-72 hours. With a generally anti-cyclonic flow aloft, and some of the warmest SST’s seen in years in this part of the GOM, and falloff in wind shear to under 15Kts could allow this small disturbance to spin-up prior to moving inland.
' EX INVEST 97L' STILL WORTH WATCHING’
While yesterday’s Global model runs had forecast what was 97L to develop into a significant cyclone, the last few runs have completely backed away on this. However, most of the global models now forecast this elongated wave near the eastern CARIB to move across the CARIB towards the Yucatan over the weekend, with some models showing a small cyclone formation in the southern GOM next week.
There has been a dramatic increase in moisture both with the westbound wave and from the deep (Equatorial) tropics in South America (SOAMER) that has been surging northward ahead of the wave for over 24 hours. Though wind shear is over 30Kts over much of the eastern CARIB (and will remain relatively high for the next few days) there is a somewhat anti-cyclonic flow developing between a small upper air Low/TROF in the west central CARIB and the approaching tropical wave in the far eastern CARIB. This anti-cyclonic curvature of the high level wind field may develop further and move westward as the tropical wave traverses the CARIB over the next few days – and shear speeds may drop off during the weekend. Clearly a system worth monitoring over the coming days.
STRONG DISTURBANCE STILL WESTBOUND OVER AFRICA
One of the season's strongest ‘Cape Verde’ disturbances is emerging off the West African coast, with virtually all global models forecasting the system to gradually intensify over the weekend as it heads West/Northwest. This strong wave with a cyclonic circulation system has a long history since it developed in the highlands of east-central Africa last weekend and has maintained a low-mid level circulation and significant convection as it crossed north Africa. The most reliable models (especially the GFS) have consistently shown this system developing into a strong cyclone early next week – but also show the system turning Northwestward and eventually northward as it approaches the central Atlantic. The latest (00Z) model run has shown this recurvature occurring a bit further west than earlier runs - but the ‘theme’ of ultimately turning this system out to sea before it can impact the CARIB or US remains unchanged.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 98L
low
tide 3:17 am LT Moon Rise – 7:07 am LT
high
tide 9:36 am LT Moon Set –7:36 pm LT
low
tide 3:32 pm LT Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
high
tide 9:09 pm LT Sunset – 6:04 pm LT
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