The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Monday,
August 25, 2017
Today,
skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be very light and variable in
direction at 5 mph or less. Seas
will be calm at 1 to 3 feet or less. There is a very slight chance of
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during
the early morning, late night hours.
The
air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid
to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. It will feel much warmer then
this with little or no wind. Expect these weather conditions to
prevail through midday Wednesday
Ocean
water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility
is 20 to 80 ft.
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Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
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The Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.
A
tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Strengthening Cristobal Headed Out to Sea; 97L and Gulf of Mexico Worth Watching
Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to dump heavy rains over the Central and Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as the storm heads slowly north-northeastwards out to sea. Satellite loops show that Cristobal is struggling with wind shear, with a center of circulation that is completely exposed to view, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south and east sides of the center. The shear is expected to relax by Wednesday as a trough of low pressure captures the storm and accelerates it to the northeast, out to sea. Cristobal will likely be intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane as it brushes Bermuda on Wednesday, and the 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave that island a 41% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.
Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Tropical Storm Cristobal over the Southeast Bahamas at 15:55 UTC (11:55 am EDT) on August 24, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 45 mph Image credit: NASA.
Keeping an eye on 97L headed towards the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) was near 12°N, 40°W on Monday morning, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 97L is located in a dry environment, which is keeping development slow. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would mostly stay in the moderate range for the next five days, which should allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C, which is warm enough to allow some slow development. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday, according to the Monday morning runs of the GFS and European models. One of the 00Z Monday runs of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the UKMET model, showed some weak development of 97L by Friday as it passes just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.
Keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico
In the Gulf of Mexico, a weak cold front is kicking up some heavy thunderstorms in the Louisiana coastal waters. This activity will spread to the Texas coastal waters by Wednesday. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, we should monitor this area for development. About 1/3 of the 20 members of the 06Z Monday GFS model ensemble showed some development in the Gulf on Thursday or Friday. (The GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) The preferred track of the system was to the west towards Texas.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
Fig 26 - Storm Statistics 97L
low tide 2:15 am LT Moon Rise – 5:32 am LT
high tide 8:29 am LT Moon Set –6:18 pm LT
low tide 2:23 pm LT Sunrise – 5:33 am LT
high tide 8:26 pm LT Sunset – 6:06 pm LT
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