Friday, August 29, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Moderate Winds and Seas

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Friday, August 29, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet. There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
    1.The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Cristobal, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
    2.Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
    3. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
    4. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean will move across the Western Caribbean Saturday through Sunday night. Another tropical wave in the Atlantic will pass 55W late Saturday...reach the eastern Caribbean late Sunday and the central Caribbean late Monday into Tuesday. A third tropical wave will pass 55W Monday and approach the eastern Caribbean Tuesday.

The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night. With Cristobal's transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world--an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don't expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal's off the coast of Massachusetts at approximately 11 am EDT on August 28, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 97L headed towards Mexico
In the Central Caribbean, a tropical wave (designated as 97L by NHC earlier this week, but no longer being labeled as such) is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear was a high 20 - 30 knots on Friday, and will remain high through Saturday. On Sunday, when the wave will be in the Western Caribbean, shear will fall, but the wave will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The wave should emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday, and development odds will be higher then. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the GFS, showed some weak development occurring in the Bay of Campeche on Monday and Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. Given the propensity of tropical storms to quickly spin up in the Bay of Campeche, I'd put the 5-day development odds at 40%. If a tropical storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, the most likely track would be to the west-northwest or northwest towards the Mexican coast south of Texas.

New tropical wave off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Friday, and is headed west at about 15 mph. One of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the UKMET model, predicts some weak development of the wave five days from now, when the storm was predicted to be headed northwest about 700 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 10%, respectively.
     

 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 4:31 am LT            Moon Rise – 8:44 am LT
high tide 11:26 am LT         Moon Set –8:54 pm LT
low tide 5:08 pm LT            Sunrise – 5:34 am LT
high tide 10:17 pm LT         Sunset – 6:03 pm LT


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