The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
2014 Hurricane Outlook
and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this
hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for
your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical
Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily
tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).
NOAA predicts
near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to
develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21,
2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL,
a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the
formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it
decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm
formation may increase.
The outlook calls for a 50
percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a
near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal
season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June
1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or
below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and
three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The
Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny.
There is a very slight chance of scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially during the early morning, late night hours.
Expect cloudiness and scattered showers most of this week with the
passage of several tropical waves.
Winds will be easterly in direction at
8 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 20 mph this
afternoon and evening. Seas
will be moderate at 2 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from
the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to
26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to
84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.
 |
Fig 19 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
The Tropical Weather Outlook
There is a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. It has been designated Invest 94L. All interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system closely as it tracks westward toward us.A tropical wave along 86W will move across the Yucatan Peninsula later today. A second tropical wave moving across the Eastern Caribbean will pass through the central Caribbean on Sunday...and through the W Caribbean Monday and Tuesday...reaching the Yucatan Peninsula late Tuesday. A third tropical wave along 45W/46W will reach the tropical Atlantic waters Sunday and enter the E Caribbean Monday... the central Caribbean Tuesday... and the Western Caribbean by Wednesday night.
The Outlook for Tropical Wave 94L by Dr. Jeff Masters
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off of Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, according to the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively. Mid-August is the time when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks into high gear, and 94L is definitely a disturbance we need to watch.
Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 2:03 am LT
Moon Rise – 6:14 pm LT
high tide 7:57 am LT
Moon Set –5:14 am LT
low tide 2:19 pm LT Sunrise – 5:31 am LT
high tide 8:38 pm LT
Sunset – 6:15 pm LT
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