Update on Invest 99L

Saturday, 121020, 5pm LT local time


Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a tropical wave (Invest 99L) located over the central Caribbean sea.  Surface pressures are falling in the area...and environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days. This system has a high chance...60 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as the wave moves slowly westward.
The consensus of the computer models, forecast that 99L, will turn north, before it reaches the W. Caribbean Sea. However, until it does, all interests in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of Honduras should monitor this system; as it strengthens and travels west towards us.

Fig 1 - Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Fig 2 - Invest 99L IR Sattelite at 2:15pm LT

At noon local time, 99L was located at 14.6N x 73.0W or 900 miles East by south of Roatan.    Maximum winds were 25mph. Barometric pressure was 1007 mb

Fig 3 - 99L Distance and Bearing from Roatan

Fig 4 - 99L - ECMWF Computer Model Run

Fig 5 - 99L Early Track Guidance

Fig 6 - 99L Late Track Guidance

Fig 7 - NCEP GFS Ensemble Track Guidance