Mostly Cloudy with Heavy Intermittent Rain through Friday

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast

This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan

CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:

The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.

Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.

This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.

In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts

The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.

During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".

It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.

This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

This blog will resume on a regular basis on 141215 - Doc Radawski

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Skies will be mostly cloudy. Winds will be light and northerly in direction at 5 mph to 15 mph today. Seas will be choppy to calm at 1 to 4 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 78°F to 82°F or 25ºC to 28ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.

Expect, heavy, intermittent rain with the passage of a cold front. The rain is forecast to continue through Friday. With wind chill, it will feel like the mid 60s F, especially when exiting the water.

 Fig 1 - Today's Wind and Weather Forecast

Fig 1a - Today's Forecasted Wind Speeds in the NW Caribbean Sea

Fig. 2 - Current 8 Day Weather Forecast for Roatan

 Fig 2 - Today's Weather Forecast CONUSA

 Fig 3 - 24 Hour Forecast CONUSA

 Fig 4 - 3 Day Forecast CONUSA

Fig 5 - Today's 26ºC/78.8ºF Isotherm

Fig 6 - Today's 20ºC/68ºF Isotherm

Fig 7 - Today's Ocean Heat Content

 Fig 8 - Today's Graphicast

 Fig 9 - Today's Caribbean Satellite Image

 Fig 10 - Today's Caribbean Rainbow Loop

 

 Fig 11 - Today's Tropical Surface Analysis

Fig 12 - Today's NOAA Gulf of Mexico and W. Caribbean Surface Analysis 

Fig 13 - Today's Satellite Water Vapor Image

Fig 13a - Atlantic Satellite Image

 Fig 14 - Today's Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image

Fig14a Today's North American Surface Temperature Contour Map

 Fig 15 - Today's Tropical Surface Forecast

 Fig 16 - Today's NOAA Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis

 Fig 17 - Today's Saharan Air Layer

 Fig 18 - Today's Saharan Air Layer_Pseudo Natural Color

Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer

Fig 20 - SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

The Tropical Weather Outlook

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

2. A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean this morning and will reach from W central Cuba to central Honduras by this evening...followed by strong northerly winds and quickly building seas. The front will continue slowly SE through Fri evening...reaching from E Cuba to NE Honduras...where it will stall and slowly dissipate over the weekend. strong northerly winds to 30 kt expected across far nw Caribbean behind front through Thu evening.

  Fig 22 - Active Tropical Atlantic Storms

Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability

The Tides: Moon and Sun

low tide 5:16 am LT                    Moon Rise – 9:39 am LT
high tide 12:15 pm LT                 Moon Set –9:30 pm LT
low tide 6:28 pm LT                    Sunrise – 5:56 am LT
high tide 12:05 am LT                Sunset – 5:13 pm LT

Moon