Monday, November 17, 2014

Again Partly Sunny with Light to Moderate Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

This blog will resume on a regular basis on 141215 - Doc Radawski

Monday, November 17, 2014
Today, skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be light and easterly in direction at 10 mph or less. Seas will be calm to choppy at 1 to 3 feet. The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 78°F to 82°F or 25ºC to 28ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft. There is a slight chance of intermittent rain today.















Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer




The Tropical Weather Outlook
    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
    1. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
    2. This morning, a strong cold front extends from central Louisiana to 24N97W. The front will move rapidly and extend from the Florida Panhandle to 19N96W later this afternoon and from Tampa Bay,Florida to the E Bay of Campeche, Mexico tonight...and from SW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Tue. The front will move SE of the area late on Tue. Gale force winds are expected across the Western Gulf of Mexico behind the front early Mon into early Tue.
    3. Fresh to strong trades will persist across the central and western Caribbean through Tue before diminishing slightly to moderate to fresh Tue night through Fri. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean waters on Tue followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed and gradually weaken through Wed night. 























 Fig 21a - Graphical 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook





















Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability




high tide 6:00 am LT                     Moon Rise – 1:35 am LT
low tide 11:36 am LT                    Moon Set –1:55 pm LT
high tide 5:15 pm LT                    Sunrise – 5:50 am LT
low tide 11:46 pm LT                   Sunset – 5:11 pm LT





























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