The
CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather
forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to
the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N
Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
in the
NW Caribbean Sea
CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com
, 800-510-8164
How to use this page:
The title of each of the
figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early
in the day and generally do not update the page until the next
morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get
the latest information.
This is not only convenient
but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and
hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right
column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's
weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for
your trip dates.
Skies will be partly cloudy. Winds will be moderate and easterly in direction at 5 mph to 15 mph this morning; increasing to 15 mph to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be calm to choppy at 1 ft to 4 ft.
The air temperatures will range from the low to high 80s ºF or 26°C to 27ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 80°F to 82°F or 26ºC to 28ºC. There is a chance of scattered rain and thunderstorms this morning.
Fig
2a – Today's Jetstream
 |
Fig 20 - Recent changes in the
Saharan Air Layer
|
 |
The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Synopsis...a tropical wave will pass through the SW Caribbean today and through the Gulf of Honduras tonight into Fri. A second tropical wave will pass through the SE Caribbean today...pass through the central Caribbean tonight into Fri...and pass through the W Caribbean over the weekend. The remnant trough of tropical cyclone Grace will arrive near 15N55W early today...reach the Leewards early Fri...and reach near Puerto Rico on Fri night locally enhancing conditions.
2. Tropical Storm Henri is moving slowly northward with no change in strength...
Henri Forms; a New African Wave is Worth Watching
By: Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2015
Tropical Storm Henri got its name on Wednesday evening in the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, but appears destined to be short-lived and quickly forgotten. Henri is under moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which is inhibiting development, but ocean waters are warm, near 28°C (82°F). The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that Thursday night through Friday night, Herni should find moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots and a moister atmosphere, which should allow it to intensify into a strong tropical storm. By Saturday morning, Henri will have crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream into very cold waters of 17°C (63°F), which should cause a rapid transition to an extratropical storm. Henri will pass close to southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday morning. Henri's formation date of September 9 comes two weeks earlier than the usual September 24 formation date for the Atlantic's eighth named storm of the year, and matches the total number of named storms that occurred during the entire year the last time we had a strong El Niño event--in 1997. The Atlantic has seen close to average levels of activity this year: 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane; a typical season sees 6 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane by this point in the season. However, this year's storms have been weaker and shorter-lived than usual; our Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (25) is about half of average (50.) The official halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 11, so we are halfway home!
New African tropical wave worth watching
A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Thursday has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westwards across the Atlantic at about 15 mph. Though the wave does not yet have much spin or heavy thunderstorm activity, conditions are favorable for development, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures at 27.5 - 28.5°C (82 - 84°F), and only a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer to the north of the disturbance. One of our three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, forecasted in its 00Z Thursday run that the wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Sunday. Many of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble forecast also predicted development, though the operational high-resolution version of the GFS model did not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. This wave looks less likely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands than the waves that spawned Grace, Erika, and Danny, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance next week
An area of disturbed weather is expected to form in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday next week. This disturbance will be capable of developing into a tropical depression, and could bring heavy rains to the coast of Mexico south of Texas early next week.
1. Synopsis...a tropical wave will pass through the SW Caribbean today and through the Gulf of Honduras tonight into Fri. A second tropical wave will pass through the SE Caribbean today...pass through the central Caribbean tonight into Fri...and pass through the W Caribbean over the weekend. The remnant trough of tropical cyclone Grace will arrive near 15N55W early today...reach the Leewards early Fri...and reach near Puerto Rico on Fri night locally enhancing conditions.
2. Tropical Storm Henri is moving slowly northward with no change in strength...
Henri Forms; a New African Wave is Worth Watching
By: Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2015
Tropical Storm Henri got its name on Wednesday evening in the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, but appears destined to be short-lived and quickly forgotten. Henri is under moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which is inhibiting development, but ocean waters are warm, near 28°C (82°F). The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that Thursday night through Friday night, Herni should find moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots and a moister atmosphere, which should allow it to intensify into a strong tropical storm. By Saturday morning, Henri will have crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream into very cold waters of 17°C (63°F), which should cause a rapid transition to an extratropical storm. Henri will pass close to southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday morning. Henri's formation date of September 9 comes two weeks earlier than the usual September 24 formation date for the Atlantic's eighth named storm of the year, and matches the total number of named storms that occurred during the entire year the last time we had a strong El Niño event--in 1997. The Atlantic has seen close to average levels of activity this year: 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane; a typical season sees 6 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane by this point in the season. However, this year's storms have been weaker and shorter-lived than usual; our Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (25) is about half of average (50.) The official halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 11, so we are halfway home!
New African tropical wave worth watching
A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Thursday has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westwards across the Atlantic at about 15 mph. Though the wave does not yet have much spin or heavy thunderstorm activity, conditions are favorable for development, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures at 27.5 - 28.5°C (82 - 84°F), and only a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer to the north of the disturbance. One of our three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, forecasted in its 00Z Thursday run that the wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Sunday. Many of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble forecast also predicted development, though the operational high-resolution version of the GFS model did not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. This wave looks less likely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands than the waves that spawned Grace, Erika, and Danny, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance next week
An area of disturbed weather is expected to form in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday next week. This disturbance will be capable of developing into a tropical depression, and could bring heavy rains to the coast of Mexico south of Texas early next week.
Fig 22a - Active Atlantic Ocean Tropical
Waves
Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 1:08 am LT Sunrise – 5:35 am LT>85° East
high tide 7:07 am LT Sunset – 5:54 pm LT < 275° West
low tide 1:09 pm LT Moon Rise – 3:25 am LT> 77° East
high tide 7:17 pm LT Moon Set – 4:23 pm LT < 281° West
high tide 7:07 am LT Sunset – 5:54 pm LT < 275° West
low tide 1:09 pm LT Moon Rise – 3:25 am LT> 77° East
high tide 7:17 pm LT Moon Set – 4:23 pm LT < 281° West
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