Friday, July 17, 2015

Mostly Sunny with Moderate to Strong Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

Friday, July 17,  2015
Skies will be partly sunny. Today, winds will be easterly in direction at 10 mph to 15 mph or more this morning;increasing to 20 mph to 30 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be choppy to rough at 2 ft to 4 ft or higher. Divers should exercise caution exiting and entering the boats, especially on the afternoon dives.
The air temperatures will range from the low to high 80s (ºF) or 26°C to 27ºC. Ocean water temperatures are 80°F to 82°F or 26ºC to 28ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.













Fig 2a – Today's Jetstream









































Fig 20 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer



The Tropical Weather Outlook
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
2. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the S central Caribbean today. Trades will diminish slightly in coverage and intensity through mid-week as the ridge weakens to the N. A tropical wave along 75W racing across the central Caribbean will reach Central America tonight and move W of the area Sat. Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic will reach the tropical N Atlantic early Mon...and move into the E Caribbean Tue.
3. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has decreased in density and area.

A Cape Verde Wave in the Central Atlantic
By: Bob Henson , 3:41 PM GMT on July 17, 2015
The ferocious wind shear associated with El Niño has remained far enough west to give a tropical wave in the central Atlantic at least a slender chance of development. Invest 93L was located near 10.7°N and 38.4°W at 8:00 am EDT Friday, moving west at about 18 mph. Peak winds are close to 30 mph, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms evident on satellite imagery within a fairly large envelope of moisture. 93L has formed a bit early for systems in the Cape Verde region, which typically peaks in production during August and September. An upper-level anticyclone over 93L has resulted in low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots immediately over the circulation. Water temperatures are slightly below average across the deep tropical North Atlantic, but at around 26 - 27°C (79° - 81°F), they are just warm enough to support development along the track of 93L. Track models generally take 93L toward the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend before projecting a gradual recurvature. Statistical models bring AL93 up to minimal tropical storm strength, but the dynamical models most reliable for predicting tropical genesis are failing to develop AL93 substantially. Any embryonic system will soon ingest drier air toward the west, not to mention struggling against powerful wind shear that now tops 50 knots around the Leeward Islands. NHC gives the system 10 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and a 20 percent chance in the next five days. Given the currently favorable upper-level conditions and marginally warm water, I would give 93L a modest chance of becoming a minimal-strength named storm for a day or two.







Fig 22a - Active  Atlantic Ocean Tropical Waves 


Fig 23 - 48 Hour Tropical Storm Probability
low tide 3:35 am LT                       Sunrise – 5:24 am LT >68° E
high tide 9:31 am LT                      Sunset – 6:23 pm LT  <292° NW
low tide 3:33 pm LT                       Moon Rise – 6:45 am LT  >76° E
high tide 10:01 pm LT                   Moon Set – 7:45 pm LT  <282° W



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