Thursday, July 31, 2014

Again Mostly Sunny with Moderate to Light Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday, July 31, 2014
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 5 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.







Fig 7 - Today's Ocean Heat Content











Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


Fig 20 - SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic


The Tropical Weather Outlook
A weak stationary front extends from just N of Naples, Florida 
to near 24.5N86W to the NE Texas coastal waters...and will 
drift S across the SE Gulf of Mexico today before stalling 
tonight then shifting NW and gradually dissipating Friday 
through Saturday. Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a 
little in association with a well-defined low pressure system 
(Invest 93L) located about 850 miles east of the southern 
Windward Islands. In addition, winds to near tropical storm 
force are occurring over a small area just north of the center. 
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive 
for development, any additional increase in organization could 
lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical 
storm during the next day or so. Interests in the Lesser 
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it 
moves west-northwestward near 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. This low pressure system(Invest 93L) well E of the area near 
11N50W moving W-NW near 16 kt., is expected to move through 
the tropical N Atlantic waters N of 12N late tonight through 
Friday evening...move across the Leeward Islands and extreme 
NE Caribbean Friday night through Saturday morning...possibly 
as a tropical cyclone...then across the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon and night...before exiting to 
the NW early Sun. Interests across this area should continue 
to closely monitor this system.
An Air Force C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate 93L on Thursday afternoon, and the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet is scheduled to fly a dropsonde mission on Thursday afternoon around the storm. 
 
low tide 5:28 am LT            Moon Rise – 9:10 am LT
high tide 12:25 am LT         Moon Set –9:36 pm LT
low tide 5:45 pm LT            Sunrise – 5:28 am LT
high tide 11:15 pm LT         Sunset – 6:19 pm LT 

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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Mostly Sunny with Moderate to Light Winds

The CoCoView Resort Weather Forecast
This weather forecast is intended for CoCoView Resort guests and applies only to the south side of Roatan
CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude
in the
   NW Caribbean Sea

             CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com , 800-510-8164

How to use this page:
The title of each of the figures below is linked to the page where the information originates.
Since I write and post early in the day and generally do not update the page until the next morning; by clicking on the link, it allows you, the viewer, to get the latest information.
This is not only convenient but allows you to track weather events such as cold fronts and hurricanes from a single web page.
In addition, in the right column is a very useful widget. It is a trip planner...yesteryear's weather at a glance.This widget lets you check historic weather for your trip dates.

2014 Hurricane Outlook and Forecasts
The hurricane season in this hemisphere starts on June 01 and ends on November 30.
During that time frame, for your convenience, you will find a section below titled, "Tropical Weather Outlook".
It will contain the daily tropical storm outlook, forecast and storm track(s).

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
This year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been decreasing in size and density since May 21, 2014. This is important because it has been postulated, that the SAL, a cool, dry, layer of air which contains particles, may inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, as it decreases in size and density, the probability of tropical storm formation may increase.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, July 30, 2017
Today, skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be easterly in direction at 5 mph to 12 mph this morning; increasing to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Seas will be moderate at 1 to 4 feet.
The air temperatures will range from the mid to high 70s (ºF) to the mid to high 80s (ºF) or 24ºC to 26ºC.
Ocean water temperatures are 82°F to 84°F or 24ºC to 25ºC. Visibility is 20 to 80 ft.


















Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) made at 8 am EDT Wednesday July 30, 2014 using data from the Meteosat-9 satellite. Dry, dusty air was present from the coast of Africa westwards across the tropical Atlantic, but was fairly well separated from tropical disturbance 93L. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.
 

 Fig 19 - Recent changes in the Saharan Air Layer


The Tropical Weather Outlook
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited.  This system continues to show signs of organization,
however, and the low could develop into a tropical depression later
today or tomorrow while it moves generally west-northwestward near
15 mph.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecast for 93L by Dr. Jeff Masters
The high levels of wind shear affecting 93L on Wednesday morning were expected to diminish to a moderate 10 - 15 knots by Wednesday night, according to the 12 UTC Wednesday forecast from the SHIPS model. With the atmosphere around 93L reasonably moist, this may allow the system to become a tropical depression as early as the 11 pm EDT Wednesday NHC advisory. Thursday morning is probably a more likely time for classification as a TD, though. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will stay roughly constant at 28°C. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET models, predicted in their 00Z Wednesday runs that the disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Friday, but were much less aggressive about strengthening the storm than in previous runs. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 70% .

All of the models predict that the disturbance will continue west-northwest at 13 - 19 mph for the next four days. The UKMET and the European models offer the fastest solution, predicting that the disturbance will arrive in the northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening. The GFS is slower and more to the northeast, predicting a Saturday morning arrival in the northern Lesser Antilles, with passage about 100 miles northeast of Puerto Rico occurring on Sunday morning. Dry air to the north of 93L will likely interfere with development throughout the week, and the atmosphere surrounding 93L will grow drier as the storm progresses west-northwest. The moderate levels of wind shear forecast to occur will be capable of driving this dry air into the core of the system, disrupting formation. The Wednesday morning runs of our two top statistical models for predicting intensity, the LGEM and DSHIPS models, forecast that once 93L became a tropical depression, it would intensify into a hurricane within 3.5 days. However, the dynamical GFDL and HWRF models, which made good intensity forecasts for Hurricane Arthur, were much less bullish. The Wednesday morning runs of these models predicted that 93L would never reach hurricane strength. I give a 10% chance that 93L will be a hurricane on Saturday when it makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 93L hits the Northern Lesser Antilles as a wet Tropical Storm Bertha (not a hurricane), the storm could be more boon than bane for the islands. The Northeast Caribbean suffered its driest June in recorded history last month, according to NOAA, and many of the islands have significant drought problems.

The GFS and European models continue to agree on the long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z Wednesday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking a northwesterly track early next week in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States, then recurving to the north without hitting the mainland U.S. coast.

The Hurricane Hunters to study 93L
Originally, a fleet of five hurricane hunter aircraft were headed to the Caribbean today to intercept 93L, according to the NOAA/HRD blog and the NHC recon Plan of the Day. Two Air Force C-130s are still headed to the islands, and will begin flying alternating missions into 93L on Thursday afternoon. The three NOAA aircraft that were scheduled to deploy today have now had their missions cancelled.

 
low tide 4:41 am LT            Moon Rise – 8:23 am LT
high tide 11:02 am LT         Moon Set –8:58 pm LT
low tide 4:48 pm LT           Sunrise – 5:28 am LT
high tide 10:35 pm LT        Sunset – 6:20 pm LT 

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